Tuesday, January 8, 2008

McCain and Obama to win N.H., Romney survives

Quick predictions on tonight’s election results from New Hampshire. First the Republicans:


I had originally thought Mitt Romney would be finished if he lost here. But now I’m not so sure. He’ll probably be able to spin the result as a virtual tie, and try to get his first win in Michigan next week, which could set up an interesting dynamic.

Where exactly do we stand if Romney, John McCain and Mike Huckabee have each claimed one state going into the back-to-back primaries in South Carolina and Florida? And let’s say for a moment that Rudy Giuliani is able to win in Florida, which he is counting on in order to stay in the game into February? Could we have four “front-runners” going into February 5? Could the nomination still be up for grabs after that date?

And does Paul get a boost by finishing in the top three?

The Democrats look to be a far less muddled picture:


It ought to be over tonight with a 10-point win for Barack Obama. John Edwards will probably hang on through South Carolina, hoping that he can beat out Hillary Clinton there and be the last opponent for Obama going into February 5. I’m guessing Clinton is in the race to February one way or the other, since she has support in some of the big states of the Northeast and in California. But regaining footing after another big loss might be impossible. I see two potential wildcards:

What does Richardson do before Nevada? He has a lot of support from the unions there and could sway the outcome in that state if he drops out. If the unions throw their support behind Clinton, does she have a chance to stop the bleeding with a win there? Does Edwards gain their votes and push Clinton to the margins?

The other issue is what to do with Florida. If Clinton is desperate for a win before February 5, does she defy the party (who has pledged to shut out Florida’s delegates because they scheduled their primary too early) and campaign hard in Florida? Maybe a win in a crucial swing state would give her momentum going into February even if the result is cosmetic.

But all of that is probably moot unless Obama commits a huge blunder. After tonight, he will have an air of inevitability around him that should easily carry him to the nomination.

blog comments powered by Disqus

Post a Comment


No Drumlins Copyright © 2009 Premium Blogger Dashboard Designed by SAER