Talking myself down

I'm trying to convince myself that everything will be OK tomorrow. Looking at all of the polls (and believe me I feel like I've viewed a billion of them) I just can't see Obama losing, but I feel like I've been down this road before. Last election day, I sat down to watch the returns come in sure that Kerry was going to win, and I was very disappointed.

So yeah, I'm nervous.

In an effort to talk myself down, I decided to go back to last year and look at the polls and returns. What I found was comforting. Looking at the Real Clear Politics averages of the polls in last year's race, it turns out that the polls were right nearly all of the time...it was me who was wrong. Specifically, look at these 2004 projections, both of the national polls and the battleground states:

RACE            PROJECTION   RESULT
Nation-wide     Bush +1.5    Bush +3
Electoral Vote  Bush +54     Bush +38

Florida         Bush +0.6    Bush +5
Ohio            Bush +2.1    Bush +2
Pennsylvania    Kerry +0.9   Kerry +2
Wisconsin       Bush +0.9    Kerry +1
Iowa            Bush +0.3    Bush +1
Minnesota       Kerry +3.2   Kerry +3
Michigan        Kerry +3.5   Kerry +3
Missouri        Bush +4.2    Bush +7
New Mexico      Bush +1.4    Bush +1
Nevada          Bush +6.3    Bush +3
Colorado        Bush +5.2    Bush +5
New Hampshire   Kerry +1     Kerry +1

While this poll or that poll may have been wrong, the averages were very much on the money. Only two of the states (Florida and Nevada) were more than three points off their averages. Only Wisconsin went against the candidate projected by the poll average. In other words, the polls predicted the result almost perfectly.

So unless all of the polls are particularly bad this year, we should see Obama win the overall vote by around 7.3 percent and by a 338-200 electoral vote margin.

That's a little better, but I'm still nervous.

Tags: Election 2008 Barack Obama John McCain

National Election Predictions

Here is my guess at the electoral map. I think my Obama vote might be a state or two on the low side (or at least I hope so):



Senate: Democrats 56, Republicans 42, Independents 2 (Dems pick up 6 seats)

House: Democrats 265, Republicans 170 (Dems pick up 29 seats)

Tags: Election 2008 Barack Obama John McCain

Details

Can you tell where the Obama campaign filmed this commercial, released today:

Hint, look for these:



It's becoming widely accepted that John McCain's last desperate chance to win the election on Tuesday is by somehow winning Pennsylvania. Obama's campaign is so detail oriented and so complete, that they even film their commercials in the most important state and include nearly subliminal images that only a Pennsylvanian (or a road geek) would notice.

Tags: Election 2008 Barack Obama Pennsylvania John McCain

McCain's Transplant Folly

Perhaps the worst moment for John McCain last night was this answer he gave when talking about his health care plan:

Now, 95 percent of the people in America will receive more money under my plan...except for those people who have the gold-plated Cadillac insurance policies that have to do with cosmetic surgery and transplants and all of those kinds of things.

Immediately when he said that, Michelle looked at me and asked "He thinks people should have to pay more for transplants?" She said it before I did, but I was thinking exactly the same thing. What kind of out-of-touch do you have to be to suggest that someone who needs a life-saving organ transplant should only have it covered under a "gold-plated Cadillac insurance policy" that would cost more than what 95% of Americans can afford?

Catching up on the reviews from this morning, I've seen some suggestions that he was talking about hair transplants, which makes sense because he joked in the last debate about needing those and he coupled the reference with cosmetic surgery.

But there are millions of people who have had a life-saving organ transplant or have a transplant recipient in their family (I have two relatives who have had kidney transplants, for instance). For those people, McCain's answer was jarring. I read a lot of commentary so I was able to get a better idea of what he was talking about, but I wonder how many others heard his answer the way I did and questioned what would have happened to them or their loved ones had McCain been in charge when they needed an organ transplant.

Tags: Election 2008 Barack Obama Debate John McCain health care

The steady Barack Obama and the lurching John McCain

If there has ever been a photo that so perfectly captured the difference between two campiagns, this one is it:



Tags: Election 2008 Barack Obama Debate John McCain

McCain-Obama Round 3 Live Blog

Well, tonight's debate will either be one for the ages, or the most inconsequential debate ever. I'm hoping for the latter. Scott and I will be blogging live, starting at 9:00.

As usual, Scott is in blue, I am in red. And we're off...

9:01 -- I'm watching this on CNN, which is filled with a billion graphics. There are literally twice as many graphics on CNN's debate than there are when I play Call of Duty 4. That doesn't seem quite right to me. CNN has 6 pundits that will be adjusting little graphs depending on how they think the debate is going. So, in other words, they are live blogging too, only they are using color coded flash cards instead of all those pesky, confusing words. That pretty much sums up the difference between nodrumlins and CNN.

9:02 -- That and 4 million viewers. I'm on NBC, because they seem to show lots of split screens.

9:03 -- McCain could hardly even spit out Obama's name. Not off to a great start.

9:04 -- Fannie and Freddie! Drink!

9:05 -- McCain just got a +2 on Martin's dial. His half-elf must have equipped his Dagger of Ogre Slaying.

9:05 -- McCain's left hand/arm is shaking. For what that's worth.

9:06 -- On CNN, Obama's hair is really shiny. It looks kind of like field turf in HD, though.

9:07 -- Both of them are wearing their bracelets. Obama has been looking right at the camera. McCain apparently got the message, as he was looking right at Obama as he spoke.

9:08 -- McCain is flailing, and it's only 9:08. He's blinking like Joba Chamberlain in the bug game last year. It's probably all those lights in his face.

9:11 -- McCain certainly has a hard time attacking. He looks uncomfortable at it.

9:13 -- Isn't Joe the Plumber one of the guys Astrid brought to Game Night? <--- nodrumlins inside joke.

9:15 -- Does Obama seem a little defensive or off his game? I'm not sure what it is...maybe I'm just paranoid.

9:16 -- The "uncommitted voters of Ohio", who also have their own graph, seemed to really like what Obama just said; their lines almost went right off the top of the chart and pierced Martin's color coded debate bubble. That would have been cool. Now the Men are almost going off the top of the chart as McCain talks, but the women are down in the middle. Damn men, am I right, ladies?

9:18 -- Eliminating a tariff won't be a program cut. It will be another tax cut. McCain seems very angry. He seemed mad that Bob Scheiffer kept on him.

9:21 -- The "I'm not President Bush" line was a good one. Obviously rehearsed, but still a good one.

9:21 -- I think Martin might have passed out on his joystick; he's got McCain at +10 and -5 and Obama at +15 and -4, for an Obama lead of 11 to 5. Meanwhile, someone named Gergen, has them tied at 1 each. Both McCain and Obama, though, are beating the Red Sox by 8.

9:24 -- I hope Obama brings up the Keating 5. DO IT! Go for the juglar! Knives out!

9:25 -- He won't.

9:26 -- McCain won't look him in the eye and say it to his face. Bringing up John Lewis is putting it on a tee. He shouldn't go there.

9:27 -- I have no idea what McCain is talking about, with this Palin killing children thing. I'm not sure it's a good idea to introduce this idea to a viewing public that hasn't heard of it, especially coming from McCain's mouth.

9:29 -- Obama hasn't been doing as well with the undecided people of Ohio since it moved away from the economy. But, you know what? Screw Ohio. I'm so over Ohio it's ridiculous. They can float that vast wasteland into the ocean and sink it for all I care.

9:30 -- Thank you Oil Can Boyd.

9:31 -- Here's a new bailout idea -- we'll trade Ohio straight up for Iceland.

9:33 -- Obama could have been better on this. He seems to be goading McCain into talking about Ayers. I wonder why.

9:34 -- There goes McCain looking into the crowd again for support.

9:39 -- This part is going on too long for Obama, though I thought he did a good job of calmly dismissing all of it. I am a bit biased here, but frankly, I think McCain is flat out lying. I can tell because his pants are, in fact, on fire.

9:40 -- What did the dials think?

9:41 -- The current scores... let's see, need to do some math... carry the one... Begala has Obama up 8-5. Bennett has them tied 3-3. Castellanos has McCain ahead 16-15. Bergen has Obama ahead 2-1. King has them tied 8-8. And Martin has Obama ahead 28-3. The commissioner from Reno has Sugar Ray ahead 110-108.

9:43 -- Michelle: Sarah Palin "sure is not a role model for me...Give me a [expletive] break."

9:44 -- I'm not sure that's true; Michelle told me the other day she wants to name the baby Fenway Banknorth.

9:46 -- I wish Obama had taken the bait and talked about McCain as "erratic" by pointing out that he has had about five different economic positions in the last two weeks.

9:48 -- McCain thinks we can reduce our dependence on Middle Eastern oil in the next four years by building 45 nuclear plants? Is he nuts?

9:48 -- Castellanos just gave McCain +1 point and -1 point at the same time. The role of Castellanos tonight is being played by Harvey Dent.

9:51 -- McCain just called himself a traitor! "I am a free traitor"! Wow, there's the moment. Game over.

9:52 -- ...oh, wait. Nevermind.

9:52 -- I don't think McCain does himself any favors when he is sarcastic.

9:54 -- These guys can debate trade treaties with Peru and Columbia every day for the next three weeks, as far as I'm concerned. That discussion won't move one voter.

9:55 -- Obama said "midwestern" and Ohio voters went off the charts. Good, they recognize when someone is talking about them. Someone give them a treat. Next debate we're going to work on recognzing shapes and colors. So they can understand the CNN coverage.

9:57 -- How did the Toledo reference go over?

9:58 -- I wonder if the Bruins won.

9:59 -- They are behind 3-2 late in the third.

9:59 -- They're behind 3-2. That's one of the graphics on CNN.

10:00 -- And we're back to Joe the Plumber. Look, the only plumbers I want to hear about are named Mario and Luigi.

10:00 -- Was Joe the plumber the guy in that Kevin Costner movie where there is only one undecided voter in a tied race, or something like that?

10:03 -- F*** JOE ALREADY!

10:04 -- McCain just told Joe that's he's rich. You know that guy is going to try to collect on that promise.

10:05 -- He also just suggested transplants and cosmetic surgery were in the same class of medical procedure. Tell that to Ron the not plumber, you mean old bastard!

10:06 -- Well, for McCain it's in the same category. His first wife had to have cosmetic surgery, so he got a spouse transplant.

10:08 -- Back to George Bush's "Elections have consequences" clap trap.

10:09 -- Isn't that the Levitra slogan? Or, wait, that's something slightly different.

10:12 -- Mmmmm. Melba snacks.

10:14 -- Dodgers are rolling over. Weirdly, I'm pretty sure I saw Varitek and Ortiz in their lineup tonight.

10:16 -- How do the dials look? McCain seems to have been slipping as the night goes on.

10:17 -- About the same, mostly. Scores right now are Obama 13-4, McCain 8-4, McCain 28-24, Obama 3-1, McCain 15-13 and Obama 38-22. In other words, three of the pundits are Republicans and three are Democrats. Pretty useless.

10:20 -- Did McCain just propose a program where soldiers can become teachers when they leave the armed forces without taking certification exams? I honor the troops as much as anyone else, but I don't think they ought to be teaching without training. That's a ridiculous proposal.

10:22 -- Dad: So if they don't know math, they're going to teach them how to become a dragon gunner?

10:23 -- Watching this on CNN is maddening. I feel like I am steering a Submarine.

10:26 -- Bruins forced a shootout. Salvaging one point is a pretty good result.

10:28 -- McCain doesn't sound like he practiced his closing. Not a strong finish at all.

10:28 -- McCain has some serious choppers. When he goes into that sarcastic grin and laugh, he bears an eerie resemblance to Todd McFarlane's Violator.

10:29 -- Someone violated Todd McFarlane? How tragic. I hope he reported that to the authorities.

10:30 -- McCain just did a great Tim Conway impression when he stood up. Hilarious.

10:33 -- Probably a draw. I thought McCain was harsh, but that's the way he is. Obama seemed a little too reserved. I thought he missed a couple of opportunities to hit McCain, but he's most likely just trying to run out the clock.

10:36 -- The pundits seem to be calling it a split. They seem to agree that McCain was very good early but that he slipped midway through, allowing Obama to catch up. Anyway, I'm done. Later, internets.


Tags: Election 2008 Barack Obama Debate John McCain

Presidential Debate #2 -- Live Blog!

Tonight! Nashville! Live! Blog!

As usual, Scott will be blogging in blue, my commentary will be in red, and John McCain will be an old curmudgeon.

8:58--I'm scrolling through the channels heading for NBC and it strikes me that it doesn't much matter how desperate the economy is, as long as we're spending all of our free time watching Dancing with the Stars and The Biggest Loser, aren't we screwed anyway?

9:02 -- Speaking of which, Misty May Treanor blew out her achilles on Dancing With the Stars. Don't the Patriots get a supplemental pick for that?

9:00--And the idea that anything good is going to come out of a debate where the questions come from people who don't yet have an opinion on the candidates is ludicrous. What have these folks been doing for the last 16 months?

9:02--Oh Good, Tom Brokaw just gave me permission to cheer or boo.

9:03 -- Isn't that Rod Steiger?

9:06--I think I'd be really uncomfortable if I were the guy in the front row when McCain (or Obama) is essentially standing in my lap.

9:06 -- By the way, I am watching tonight on ABC, where they will be later interviewing a group of college students. First question: which member of High School Musical is hottest?

9:07--Did McCain just propose to directly buy back bad mortgages? Wasn't he against that last week?

9:08 -- By the way, Mom just announced that she would be more comfortable voting for Tina Fey than for Sarah Palin. Which... yeah, me too, actually.

9:09 -- You've been doing God's work there.

9:10 -- Warren Buffett is not going to be anyone's treasury secretary. What a stupid question!

9:10 -- I think he meant "Jimmy Buffet".

9:11 -- During Obama's last discussion of middle class tax relief, Mom said "That's fine for the middle class, but what about the lower class?" WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON?!

9:11 -- Where did they find an undecided black voter?

9:14 -- Where the hell did John McCain just walk off to? Hey old man, your chair is the other way.

9:14 -- He was illustrating the hike that some people took when Freddie and Fannie were going under. Which I think took place in "Archie's Pal Jughead" #107.

9:17 -- Hey, that was Cindy McCain and Lindsay Graham in the back row. Now, if they are undecided voters, McCain is in worse shape than I thought.

9:17 -- Uh oh. Obama just mentioned other countries. That will lose 50,000 votes.

9:18 -- They're continuing over in Section F. Nice, that's where I parked.

9:18 -- That woman has huge baubles.

9:19 -- Yes. Start making the comparison between 2000 and 2008. Don't forget to point out that the Dow is lower now than it was then.

9:20 -- I'm actually kind of torn, here. The Bush Administration has been very good for the Boston Red Sox. Do we really want to risk changing the mojo now? Do we want to go back to the days of Jose Offerman?

9:22 -- I liked the sidelong look that lady in the front row gave McCain as he sidled up the rail. You know she was thinking, "one more step, buster, and I'm going to sock you, you creep".

9:23 -- Tom Brokaw used the entire one minute discussion time to ask his question. Clamp it you old windbag!

9:24 -- Was McCain doing an acrostic on that pad? You know there's something wrong with the question when the candidates have to take notes during it.

9:26 -- $3.80 for a gallon of gas in Nashville? Reason #246 not to live in Nashville.

9:27 -- There's a .43 tax that goes to help subsidize Vince Young's therapy bills.

9:28 -- Oh sure, a 78-year-old asking a question via the internet...at least one septuagenarian in tonight's debate knows how to use e-mail.

9:29 -- To be fair, though, her actual question was "what does this button do?"

9:30 -- "Of course we can attack both problems at once. We're Americans! What does he think this is, Kenya or something?"

9:30 -- McCain: "We're not rifle shots here, we're Americans." What? Huh?

9:31 -- Obama is rambling. He doesn't seem particularly comfortable. Actually, he looks more comfortable when he's listening to McCain that he looks when it's his turn to speak.

9:33 -- Brokaw's follow-up question was 33 second long!

9:34 -- Obama does seem a bit distracted. He's probably worried about missing Dancing with the Stars and Biggest Loser.

9:36 -- Look at that doughboy in the front row. I hope he gets to ask a question.

9:36 -- And McCain makes a Herbert Hoover reference. He just locked up Edith Bunker's vote.

9:38 -- McCain's entire answer on taxes was a lie. Glad to see Obama come back to it.

9:40 -- I know the crowd has been coached not to mess up the debate, but they look comatose. The robots in the Hall of Presidents are more animated than this crowd.

9:41 -- Michelle: "Did McCain just say that reforming Social Security is not that hard?" Me: "Yes."

9:43 -- Is Joe Lieberman his running mate or something? McCain brings him up in every other answer.

9:43 -- Mrs. Obama sitting behind the questioner. I wonder if she's been tempted to slip someone a question.

9:44 -- "Senator Obama says nuclear power needs to be safe or somthing like that..." Silly Obama. Nothing says safe like nuclear power. Just ask the Russians.

9:45 -- McCain looks like he's at summer camp writing to his penpal. He seems really pleased with what he's jotting down.

9:45 -- He's writing with a Shaaaaaah-pee!

9:48 -- Form a Manhattan Project to develop energy? Do we still have that many Nazi scientists?

9:48 -- Tom Brokaw just asked if we should build 100,000 garages across the country. Now that's a man in touch with the issues of the day.

9:50 -- The camera panned back so they could get McCain in the shot, right as he was giving a "choke a bitch" gesture with his hand to someone in the crowd. Nice.

9:50 -- McCain just waked across across the stage to get an answer from Lindsay Graham in the back of the hall! The guy can't even rely on his own notes, he needs help from his lackey in the crowd!

9:54 -- That's seriously crossing some state lines. So if I'm in Tennessee and I want to see a more qualified doctor, I just hop in my car and go to Arizona? Man, I hope I don't need a prescription.

9:54 -- Dude, no one is going to travel from Tennessee to Arizona to see their doctor. Georgia, maybe.

9:55 -- Michelle: He shouldn't try to tell jokes. He's terrible at it.

9:56 -- Interesting that McCain is giving Obama a hard time about "mandating" coverage when Hillary Clinton was criticizing him for NOT mandating coverage when they were debating during the primary.

9:59 -- Obama had a fantastic answer about health care, but he probably shouldn't be using Delaware as an example of what's wrong with the banking industry, seeing as his running mate has been called the "Senator from MBNA."

10:04 -- Obama seems to be hitting his stride. He's had a very good last 10 minutes. And now Brokaw is breaking the momentum with an interminable question.

10:04 -- MST3K crowd shot: pasty... pasty... pasty... beefy... pasty...

10:05 -- Yeah, if Gallup did one thing right with this representative sample, they accurately portrayed the relative heft of the American people.

10:07 -- McCain: "...and during the Boxer Rebellion, I stood up to my idol McKinley and warned against American intervention".

10:09 -- Section F is the clear winner tonight. Everyone gets a two-liter of Pepsi.

10:09 -- If McCain mentions Lieberman again, Section F gets free fries from Wendy's.

10:10 -- Is the debate being held on the old Let's Make a Deal set? Are they going to wheel out a mystery box any time soon?

10:11 -- Wait, I thought Reagan was his hero?

10:14 -- There's nothing worse than being green behind the ears.

10:15 -- "I know how to get him. I know how to get bin Laden." Then why don't you tell us? Why should we have to wait for you to be president? If you know how to get him, shouldn't you, you know, share that information?

10:17 -- That almost smacks of Reagan and the Iranian hostage crisis. As soon as he gets elected, they magically get released. Is McCain suggesting that if we want bin Laden to be caught, we just need to elect him, and the next day Pakistan will mysteriously present him in chains?

10:18 -- That's "McCain hero Reagan" to you.

10:20 -- I hate the term "petro dollars." Sounds like a Exxon credit card rewards program. Earn enough petro dollars and get a free car wash in Moscow.

10:20 -- Am I going to have to rent Eastern Promises to understand this section of the debate? Help me, Aragorn!

10:22 -- What's up with the goober in the trucker hat in the back of the section? Hey bud, if you're going to a forum with the next president of the United States wash your friggin' hair and make yourself presentable.

10:24 -- Stop yelling at Joe Sixpack, dude.

10:26 -- John McCain keeps bringing up this "League of Democracies." Where I come from, we call that NATO. I don't think we need another one.

10:26 -- I'm getting pretty psyched. It's almost time to hear from the ABC student council. This is going to be so entertaining and informative!

10:28 -- Yeah, I don't like this League of Democracies crap either. The last thing I want is for American actions to be vetoed by Aquaman.

10:31 -- I really think Obama would have been better served by answering the "What don't you know" question directly. That one shouldn't be that hard.

10:32 -- I think McCain is bonking this one worse, though. "I don't know what's going to happen" isn't really reassuring from the President.

10:33 -- Maybe. But you can go from that to "I may not know what's going to happen" to "I know how to
deal with the unexpected." (Not that McCain did).

10:34 -- Me: Did he just say "comrade"? Dad: He was indoctrinated when he was in prison.

10:37 -- Apparently Kodak sponsored tonight's debate...looks like every one of the audience has identical disposable cameras.

Well, I thought McCain won. Not by much, just a little. I don't think it changed much, though. Obama will still be up 5-7 points at the end of the week.

I thought Obama edged it out. McCain just seemed to be making stuff up towards the end. But what really matters is what the student focus group thought.

I'm not even watching ABC, but I can tell you what they thought. You'll have a couple of 20-year-old guys with wire-rim glasses and no hope of having a girlfriend saying that McCain won and that Obama is a Muslim terrorist. A couple of young ladies will be concerned about Darfur and global warming, and generally wringing their hands. And a couple of others who think Obama is going to save the world.

The students, by the way, are being wrangled by Charlie Gibson, who seems to be on the brink of doddering. I'm pretty sure I saw at least one dodder from him. First student interviewed: Brittany Fiffick, who is still undecided. Seriously? Still undecided? Here's an idea: let's change the voting age to 30. The general consensus from the undecideds is that they are now leaning slightly towards Obama. But you know what? Who care what any of these knobs have to say.

And with that, I think I'm done. Peace out, internets!

Tags: Election 2008 Barack Obama Debate John McCain

McCain's Ancient History

One last point on Friday's debate that I forgot to mention in yesterday's post...

McCain consistently referred to historical events--both as an example of success and as an example of failure--in framing his answers to a number of policy questions. While I appreciate a good discussion of history, I wonder if his points resonated at all with large segments of the public. Here were three that stood out while I was watching:

I won't repeat the mistake that I regret enormously, and that is, after we were able to help the Afghan freedom fighters and drive the Russians out of Afghanistan, we basically washed our hands of the region.

Back in 1983, when I was a brand-new United States congressman, the one -- the person I admired the most and still admire the most, Ronald Reagan, wanted to send Marines into Lebanon. And I saw that, and I saw the situation, and I stood up, and I voted against that...

The point is that throughout history, whether it be Ronald Reagan, who wouldn't sit down with Brezhnev, Andropov or Chernenko until Gorbachev was ready with glasnost and perestroika. Or whether it be Nixon's trip to China, which was preceded by Henry Kissinger, many times before he went.

The problem is that to many of the viewers, the events McCain referenced might as well be ancient history. Someone who was voting age in 1980 when the Afghan-Soviet conflict was at it's height would now be at least 46 years old today. Someone of voting age in 1983 when Lebanon and the Soviet dictators listed would be at least 43. A listener who might have been making political decisions in 1973 when Nixon was visiting China would now be at least 53.

How many voters are going to hear those examples and think "Yeah, I remember what that time was like."? Some will, but McCain probably already has many of them. Unless a voter of my generation was paying unusually close attention for a 12-year old or studied this stuff in college, these examples are meaningless. For most people under 35 or so, most of what they know of these events would be based on the commentary of Rich Eisen or Mo Rocca on I love the 80s.

Tags: Election 2008 Barack Obama Debate John McCain

"The average South Korean is three inches taller" and other thoughts on Friday's debate

I wasn’t able to see all of Friday’s presidential debate live, and the 40 minutes I did see of it on Friday was with the sound off and the closed-captioning on (I was at a birthday party at a sports bar…the idea was to watch the Red Sox beat the Yankees. Once the game got to 13-4 in favor of New York, a few of us were able to turn a couple of TVs over to the debate.). So for the legion of loyal readers who were hoping for an in-depth live blog…sorry to disappoint.

But I did watch it again over the weekend and a handful of things stood out to me.

• The quote in the title is a perfect example of what happens when a candidate tries to take a point that has a complex explanation and uses it as a talking point: it becomes complete gibberish. Here is the entire portion of McCain’s answer dealing with North Korea:
  
  

  As far as North Korea is concerned, our secretary of state, Madeleine Albright, went to North Korea. By the way, North Korea, most repressive and brutal regime probably on Earth. The average South Korean is three inches taller than the average North Korean, a huge gulag.
  
  We don't know what the status of the dear leader's health is today, but we know this, that the North Koreans have broken every agreement that they've entered into.

  When I first saw this response (on closed caption) I laughed out loud. Let’s forget for the moment the way the sentence in bold reads--it appears that John McCain is calling a tall South Korean individual a huge gulag (which suggests that the three-inch shorter North Korean person is a slightly shorter gulag). It’s funny because it kind of sits out there as a ludicrous, ridiculous piece of trivia.
  
  But thinking about it a little more, the fact that North and South Koreans have different growing patterns is probably strong anthropological evidence that North Korean society trails pretty significantly. The point McCain was probably trying to make is that the North Korean people are malnourished, do not have access to modern health care and a whole host of other factors that cause North Koreans to fail to thrive, all of which are the fault of Kim Jong Il and his father before him.
  
  I’m giving McCain the benefit of the doubt that he knows the rationale behind why the size of Koreans is proof that North Korea is a “repressive and brutal regime.” But the problem is that in a debate format, a candidate rarely has the opportunity to expound on these little nuggets. So unless the person watching the debate takes the additional step in his or her mind to walk through the reasons why a dangling piece of information matters, he or she probably hears that and wonders “What the hell does the height of a Korean have to do with negotiating with a foreign leader.”
  


• There has been quite a bit made in debate reviews of the fact that McCain would not look at Barack Obama when he was speaking about Obama, or when Obama was speaking him. I think that was probably more evident in the hall than it was on TV. We rarely got to see the two of them except on split screen and in that view it’s hard to tell where the candidate is looking. What the split screen did show was the little flashes of anger that hit McCain when Obama would attack him. He had that reflexive forced grin that says “you’re not bothering me! You’re not bothering me!” that makes it clear that he was quite bothered.
  
  The candidates seemed to deal with each other’s attacks in a very different manner. McCain hardly responded at all when Obama attacked him. While he sometimes had a hard time masking his facial expressions, he rarely attempted to counter Obama’s claims. I don’t know if he was purposely trying to ignore him, if he thought that parrying the claims would make him sound defensive, or if he had some other strategy, but I thought it had the effect of leaving Obama’s points out there unchallenged.
  
  On the other hand, Obama made it a point to respond briefly to nearly every attack. The risk in that is that he could have come off sounding defensive. Most of the time I thought Obama was successful in reframing the attacks and was able to do so without being defensive.
  


• Finally, I thought the debate played differently via closed-caption than it did with sound. Reading the answers at the bottom of the screen for the last 40 minutes and only seeing the candidates (but not hearing them), I would have scored McCain as the victor. There didn’t seem to me to be a whole lot that was different from what the candidates have been saying all along; I figured that the status quo on the foreign policy front was probably a McCain win.
  
  But when I rewatched it and heard their voices and their inflections and the points they found important enough to emphasize, I changed my opinion. McCain seemed just a little angry, a little rigid, and a little peeved. Obama seemed more cool and thoughtful…not aloof like John Kerry, but rational and controlled. Even if Obama didn’t win, he at least tied, which is all he needs to do right now.

Tags: Election 2008 Barack Obama Debate John McCain

Sarah Palin's view of the world

This made me laugh out loud...


(via BMG.)

Tags: Election 2008 Republican Sarah Palin John McCain Russia

Obama, McCain should come together on bailout

If the financial markets are in as deep a crisis as we’ve been led to believe (I am skeptical of this), and if it is imperative that the government quickly bailout failing firms (I am very, very skeptical of this) than it seems like there is one way to get it done: Barack Obama and John McCain should co-sponsor the bailout bill and present a unified front in getting a bill that they agree on passed by congress.

Is that a pipe-dream? Absolutely. But reading the speeches of the two candidates yesterday, there is hardly a dime of difference between them. Each candidate laid out a set of broad principles that any final bill should include. Below, I have included exact quotes from their speeches (one in red, and one in blue). Can you tell which is which?

On oversight:
I have suggested a bipartisan board to provide oversight for the rescue. We will not solve a problem caused by poor oversight with a plan that has no oversight.

We should set up an independent board that includes some of the most respected figures in our country, chosen by Democrats and Republicans, to provide oversight and accountability at every step of the way.

On responsibility to taxpayers:
There must be a path for taxpayers to recover the money that is put into this fund.

But regardless of how we structure the plan, if the government makes any kind of profit on this deal, we must give every penny back to the taxpayers who put up the money in the first place.

On executive compensation:
No Wall Street executives should profit from taxpayer dollars.

The plan must include protections to ensure that taxpayer dollars are not used to further reward the bad behavior of irresponsible CEOs on Wall Street.

On earmarks and add-ons:
It is completely unacceptable for any kind of earmarks to be included in this bill.

Let me be clear--we shouldn't include this stimulus package into this particular legislation...

OK. John McCain’s speech is in red and Barack Obama’s speech is in blue (obviously, do you think I’d try to trick you with the colors?).

There are really only a couple of differences in the principles they outlined. McCain specifically mentioned that the legislation should be written in public, not “behind closed doors.” I expect Obama would probably agree to that. Obama has suggested that any bailout also include “the authority to purchase mortgages directly instead of simply mortgage-backed securities.” McCain probably would not go for that, but that seems like a fairly minor sticking point.

Obama also has proposed an economic stimulus plan that McCain would probably oppose, but Obama agrees that any additional stimulus should not be tied to the bailout bill, which is consistent with McCain’s position that there be no earmarks or add-ons.

Obama and McCain ought to sit down together Friday morning before the debate with just their senatorial aides (not their campaign people) and hammer out the framework for a bill. They could announce it at a joint press conference before the debate.

Failing that, the two campaigns could come together and jointly announce that the candidates will not support any bill that does not include each of their shared principles and will urge their colleagues to reject any bill that does not reflect those principles.

Will any of that happen? Of course not. Obama’s recent spike in the polls is largely tied to the financial crisis. From a political strategy standpoint, taking the issue off the table could negate that advantage. Conversely, McCain’s campaign could be looking at a political windfall if an unpopular bailout is passed by the Democratic congress with little Republican support. It would allow him to tie the Democrats to Bush and solidify his self-proclaimed “maverick” persona.

But if we really are at the brink of financial ruin, Obama and McCain should take the opportunity to lead…together.

Afternoon Update: Wow. This is encouraging. Apparently I should call on the campaigns to do things more often:

At 8:30 this morning, Senator Obama called Senator McCain to ask him if he would join in issuing a joint statement outlining their shared principles and conditions for the Treasury proposal and urging Congress and the White House to act in a bipartisan manner to pass such a proposal. At 2:30 this afternoon, Senator McCain returned Senator Obama’s call and agreed to join him in issuing such a statement. The two campaigns are currently working together on the details.

Tags: Election 2008 Barack Obama Bailout John McCain Economy

Obama opens the door to the Keating Five

Barack Obama continued to hammer John McCain for his assertion that "the fundamentals of our economy are strong" today in Colorado, but beyond that he also went somewhere he has not yet gone with McCain...the Savings and Loan scandals of the 1980s. Here is the part of Obama's speech that is gaining the most attention:

Yesterday, Wall Street suffered its worst losses since just after 9/11. We are in the most serious financial crisis in generations. Yet Senator McCain stood up yesterday and said that the fundamentals of the economy are strong.

A few hours later, his campaign sent him back out to clean up his remarks, and he tried to explain himself again this morning by saying that what he meant was that American workers are strong. But we know that Senator McCain meant what he said the first time, because he has said it over and over again throughout this campaign -- no fewer than 16 times, according to one independent count.

But later on, Obama tied the current crisis to the policies of the 1980s:

It happened in the 1980s, when we loosened restrictions on Savings and Loans and appointed regulators who ignored even these weaker rules. Too many S&Ls took advantage of the lax rules set by Washington to gamble that they could make big money in speculative real estate. Confident of their clout in Washington, they made hundreds of billions in bad loans, knowing that if they lost money, the government would bail them out. And they were right. The gambles did not pay off, our economy went into recession, and the taxpayers ended up footing the bill. Sound familiar?

Although he doesn't mention McCain explicitly, I don't think it's any accident that he is referencing the major scandal in McCain's Washington life. Will the press pick up on it and bring the issue to the forefront? Is it a signal to Obama's supporters and the 527s that the Keating Five is on the table?

I hope so.

Tags: Election 2008 Barack Obama Keating Five John McCain Economy

Bristol Palin's pro-choice choice

The big non-Gustav story of the day is the announcement by the McCain campaign that Sarah Palin's 17-year-old daughter Brooke is pregnant:

We have been blessed with five wonderful children who we love with all our heart and mean everything to us. Our beautiful daughter Bristol came to us with news that as parents we knew would make her grow up faster than we had ever planned. We're proud of Bristol's decision to have her baby and even prouder to become grandparents. As Bristol faces the responsibilities of adulthood, she knows she has our unconditional love and support.

Many conservatives joined in their support of the Palin family. David Brody of Christian Broadcasting Network:

Look, this development will actually be positive for the most part with Evangelicals. First they hear that Sarah Palin chooses the life option even though she had a Downs Syndrome baby and once again the family (and Bristol) has chosen the life option in this recent case.

Evangelical leader Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council:

Fortunately, Bristol is following her mother and father's example of choosing life in the midst of a difficult situation.

Rod Dreher of Beliefnet, in a post titled "Palin's daughter gets pregnant, chooses life":

Bristol Palin is not going to abort her unborn child. She's going to keep the baby and marry the father. Good for her. It shouldn't have happened, but it did happen, and now she's going to do the right thing -- the hard thing.

And so on and so on. There doesn't seem to be any awareness by any of these conservatives that they are endorsing the pro-choice position. If these and other conservatives have their way, girls like Miss Palin won't be able to "choose" the life option.

I commend Miss Palin for her choice to keep the baby and hope both she and her child are healthy and happy. Women facing the same situation in the future should still be able to make that choice.

Tags: Election 2008 Republican Sarah Palin John McCain pro-choice

Michael Graham’s unwavering support for Veteran candidates

As I’m sure he did in 2000 and 2004, Michael Graham takes on those who would oppose a Vietnam veteran’s campaign for president this morning in a post titled "We Support The Troops...Unless They Run For President." Among the excerpts:

Berkeley liberals attack a Marine recruiting office and even try to cast spells on it. Cambridge shuts down a Boy Scout drive collecting gifts to send to soldiers in Iraq. Harvard chased the ROTC off campus during the Vietnam War and still won't allow them back.

But whatever you do...don't question the Left's patriotism!

It’s always nice to see a right-winger support the candidacy of a Vietnam veteran. One of the hallmarks of conservatism in the 21st Century is its unwavering support of presidential candidates who fought overseas...

Now, I wasn’t a listener of Graham’s back in 2004 (OK, I’m not now either; you got me), and I wasn’t reading his columns or blogs or whatever he might have been writing then. But I imagine that if I was I’d have found this:

We Support The Troops...Unless They Run For President.

Georgia conservatives attack a triple-amputee Vietnam War hero and tie him to Osama bin Laden. Conservative religious leaders preach that God sent the 9/11 attackers to punish America. Thousands of delegates to the Republican convention sport purple band-aids to mock the war wounds of a decorated war hero.

But whatever you do...don't question the Right's patriotism!

I’m sure I’ll find that link in the archives somewhere. Just got to keep looking...

Tags: Election 2008 Republican veterans John McCain Michael Graham

John McCain's health care disaster

John McCain rolled out his health care plan yesterday. For the tens of millions of Americans who currently receive their benefits through their employers, it promises to be a total disaster, as the average family’s premiums will more than double. From the New York Times:

Mr. McCain’s health care plan would shift the emphasis from insurance provided by employers to insurance bought by individuals, to foster competition and drive down prices. To do so he is calling for eliminating the tax breaks that currently encourage employers to provide health insurance for their workers, and replacing them with $5,000 tax credits for families to buy their own insurance....

Democrats and some experts said the proposal might lead some employers to stop offering health insurance, and questioned whether the tax credit would cover the cost of private insurance.

There is no “might” about it, the proposal will cause many employers to drop health care insurance altogether or significantly roll back their offerings. The tax break that employers get is the most significant incentive for them to offer insurance to their employees. Without it, the only incentives to an employer are intangible. For instance, more competitive benefits help attract better workers, and healthier employees are more productive. But how many companies will continue to shell out $7,000-8,000 per family per year for coverage if they are not able to deduct those costs? Probably not that many.

Based on the most recent statistics, the tax credit will not nearly cover the cost of private insurance. According to the National Coalition on Health Care, the total cost of the average family health insurance plan is $12,100. Of that the average family pays $3,300 in premiums with the rest covered by the employer. Under McCain’s plan, that average family would receive a $5,000 tax credit to offset the cost of the plan, leaving the family to cover the remaining $7,100 in premiums.

The average family who pays $275 per month for health insurance would see their premiums rise to $592 per month under McCain’s plan, a 115% increase.

(I am very lucky that I have an employer that offers a better than average plan and asks me to pay less than the average. Applying McCain’s proposal to my situation, if my employer decided it would be cheaper for them to drop employer-sponsored coverage, my monthly cost for the same plan that I am in now would more than triple from $225 per month to $750 per month.)

McCain suggests that his plan will “foster competition and drive down prices,” but the retail price of the average plan would have to drop from $12,100 per year to $8,300 in order for the average family to see no premium increase. In an era where medical premiums have nearly doubled in the last seven years, can anyone rationally expect that health insurance costs will drop 31% as a result of McCain’s plan? No.

While the promise of a $5,000 tax credit will sound like a great plan to many voters, it is nothing more than another device to shift the cost away from corporations and onto the backs of the working and middle-class. The McCain plan is a loser for ordinary Americans.

Tags: Election 2008 Republican health care John McCain

Doddering old man

I'm watching the Republican Debate (not live-blogging it) and John McCain is coming across as a rambling doddering old man. The worst thing that happened to him tonight was the decision not to have a time limit on answers. The sun literally set during his rambling, stream-of-consciousness answer on California's energy plan.

Romney is running circles around him. Just when I think I've got a handle on this race, something new happens. Romney's victory in this debate (if it turns out that way over the last hour and a quarter) probably won't be enough to make up for Rudy Giuliani's endorsement of McCain. But man, is McCain just killing himself tonight.

Tags: Election 2008 Republican Primary Mitt Romney John McCain Debate

OK Mitt, now what?

Well, I was wrong about tonight's results. Mitt Romney did not win, and now he's in a bit of trouble. In fact, tonight probably couldn't have gone much worse for Willard. Not only did John McCain beat him in a "closed" primary, but Rudy Giuliani will drop out tomorrow and endorse McCain, and Mike Huckabee will not drop out, causing Mitt to split the votes of social conservatives with the Huckster.

It's been clear to me for a while now that Romney just can't stand losing. Not that he is a "bad loser" in the classic sense--it seems that he is gracious to a fault--but he doesn't know how to deal with it. To a certain sense I guess that's a good thing--no one wants to accept failure--but man it's hard to see mi try to deal with it.

In his concession speech tonight, Mitt seemed to be almost on the verge of tears. Perhaps he was just losing his voice a little (it has been a long campaign) but I thought he was going to break down during his speech. He also rushed through it and was almost hollering, like a kid trying to convince himself to be tough in the face of adversity. It was almost uncomfortable to watch.

It will be very interesting to see how Romney responds. When he went negative in New Hampshire, it turned voters away and sealed the victory for McCain. But he can't win without being aggressive. The other part of the problem with ratcheting up the fight is that Mitt doesn't take it nearly as well as he dished it out. His Achilles has always been his loss of composure in the face of direct attacks. He imploded in the final 1994 Senatorial debate when attacked by Ted Kennedy, and his worst debate performances in the presidential cycle have been those where he was attacked by his fellow candidates.

Just as an aside...one of the things that bothers me the most about Romney is his compete inability to do anything original. His surfing for positions and pandering for votes has been well documented, but now it's gotten to the point where he is stealing the campaign signs of his opponents, right down to the font.

Tags: Election 2008 Republican Primary Mitt Romney Mike Huckabee John McCain Rudy Giuliani Florida

Quick Florida Prediction...Romney by a hair

A perfectly styled and sprayed hair...

Romney.......34%
McCain........32%
Giuliani........17%
Huckabee.....14%
Paul............3%

Tags: Election 2008 Republican Primary Mitt Romney Mike Huckabee Ron Paul John McCain Rudy Giuliani Florida

Big big big big big big big week

This week is shaping up to be one of the most interesting political weeks in decades. Starting tonight, the next four days will be crazy, and then half of the country holds primaries on February 5. After all of the buildup over the last 14 months, here we go...

First--and probably least consequential--is tonight's state of the union address. It's a little hard to believe that President Bush has squandered so much political capital that nobody cares about what the President has to say tonight, but there you go. Despite the general sense that the country is just running out the clock in hopes that he doesn't screw anything else up, I may look to blog the speech tonight.

Then Tuesday, the Republican primary in Florida will decide who is left to fight in February. Rumors are that Rudy Giuliani--who may have run the worst campaign in my lifetime--will drop out if he doesn't win. He won't. If McCain can hang on to win, he will probably coast through Super Duper Tuesday. If Romney wins, the boost might be enough to allow him to draw even in the national polls, setting up a wide open February 5.

Wednesday, whichever Republicans remain standing (Probably McCain, Romney, Paul, and perhaps Huckabee) will debate in California. Romney had a great debate last week in Florida, primarily because McCain and the others inexplicably declined to attack him. I'll bet the gloves will be off.

And then Thursday the Democrats debate in Florida and that will probably be the highlight of the week. If Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were at each other throats before South Carolina--a contest that wasn't really contested--I can't wait to see how they face off five days before the biggest single day in this campaign.

And because I know that all of you hang on my every word, I hope to blog all of it. At some point, I'll also announce my endorsement as well as plans for special coverage of the February 5 results. Bet you can't wait, huh?

Tags: Election 2008 Democratic Primary Barack Obama Hillary Clinton Florida Republican Mitt Romney John McCain Rudy Giuliani

Michigan Prediction: Romney Wins

Who wins tonight in Michigan? Here is my prediction:

Romney. . . . 35
McCain. . . . .31
Huckabee. . .15
Thompson. . . 7
Giuliani. . . . .7
Paul. . . . . . . 5

Tags: Election 2008 Republican Primary Mitt Romney Fred Thompson Mike Huckabee Ron Paul John McCain Rudy Giuliani Michigan