On second thought, Branch trade may not be so bad

Earlier today, I was part of a discussion online regarding whether or not Deion Branch was the best wide receiver the Patriots had seen. Others (including me) argued that Stanley Morgan was the best Patriots receiver of all time. The person arguing in favor of Branch suggested that he was the greatest based on his playoff performance.

Certainly Branch was better in the postseason than Morgan was. However, Morgan's playoff performances came on the greatest running team of all time (1978) and one of the greatest playoff running teams ever (1985). He never played in a playoff game where the team passed for 200 yards or more. Conversely, Brady has thrown for less than 200 yards only once in the playoff games he and Branch have played.

I think Stanley Morgan, like most old Patriots, is a victim of recent history. He was really really good. His first four years compare very favorably with Branch's:

PLAYER YEARS G REC YDS AVG YPG TD
MORGAN 77-80 62 144 3256 22.6 52.5 26
BRANCH 02-05 53 213 2744 12.9 51.8 14

Over that time, Morgan was responsible for 27% of his team's passing yards (12,163), while Branch only caught 17% of the Patriots' yards during his four years (15,490).

So I decided to expand my search a little, and looked for all Patriots receivers who had over 2,000 yards in their first four years as receivers. There were 12. Is it possible that Branch wasn't even the second best? Here are the stats of those players, ranked by total yards:

PLAYER	YEARS	G	REC	YDS	AVG	YPG	TD
GLENN	1996-99	48	236	3502	14.8	73.0	15
MORGAN	1977-80	62	144	3256	22.6	52.5	26
COLCLOUGH	1960-63	56	173	2984	17.2	53.3	31
BRISBY*	1993-97	62	192	2780	14.5	44.8	12
BRANCH	2002-05	53	213	2744	12.9	51.8	14
CAPPELLETTI*	1961-64	56	152	2605	17.1	46.5	22
TIMPSON*	1991-94	63	167	2381	14.3	37.8	8
GRAHAM	1963-66	52	142	2256	15.9	43.4	15
GIVENS	2002-05	52	158	2214	14.0	42.6	12
VATAHA	1971-74	54	121	2143	17.7	39.7	16
SELLERS*	1969-72	49	110	2130	19.4	43.5	18
FRYAR	1984-87	56	124	2038	16.4	36.4	19

Notes: Brisby missed the 1996 season due to injury. Cappelletti was a K/DB in 1960 and switched to receiver in 1961. Timpson's first full season was 1991. Sellers was with Dallas in 1972, his fourth season.

Comparatively, Branch ranked 5th in total yards, 2nd in total catches, last in average yards per catch, 4th in yards per game, and 9th in touchdowns. Based on the statistics alone, one could argue that Branch is no better than the fourth best Patriots' receiver over his first four seasons.

In fact, it looks like the closest statistical match is Vincent Brisby. Now my eyes and heart tell me that Vincent Brisby couldn't carry Deion Branch's jock, but I'd suggest that Branch's production could probably be replaced, seeing as we've seen 11 other players who have done it before.

The other thing I find interesting is that of those 12 players, only two (Morgan and Fryar) had better four year stretches later in their career than in their first four years. Further, five of the players on the list didn't even make it another four years (Brisby, Graham, Timpson, Vataha, Sellers).

As much as I would have liked to see Branch stay (he was one of my favorite players), I'm not sure the Patriots made a mistake.

Tags: New England Patriots NFL Deion Branch