The Case for Hannu Toivenen

My latest entry at BSMW Power Play, arguing for more PT for rookie Bruins' goaltender Hannu Toivenen:

There is a saying in the NHL that goes something like this: “Your best penalty killer is your goaltender.” While that seems obvious in the sense that the goaltender is the one who keeps the puck out of the net, I wonder how often Mike Sullivan or any other NHL coach decides which goaltender should play based on the ability to kill penalties. It may happen more than they let on—most coaches are loathe to share information on injuries, strategies, and the like—but whether or not it has been a factor in the past, it should be a consideration for Sullivan in the future.

The statistics strongly suggest that when Andrew Raycroft is back from injury and ready to spilt time with Hannu Toivonen, Toivonen should start against teams with strong power play units and those who draw a lot of penalties.

Through the first 15 games, Toivonen has been one of the best penalty-killing goaltenders in the Eastern Conference, recording a .900 save percentage while the Bruins are killing a power play. That mark is good for third in the conference among goaltenders that have faced at least 35 shots against. Conversely, Raycroft’s save percentage of .804 is the third worst in the East

Power Play Save Percentage Top 5

Power Play Save Percentage Bottom 5

Toivonen is also one of only four goaltenders in the conference who saves a higher percentage of power play shots than he does even strength attempts. I’m not sure that is significant, but it is interesting. If Derek Jeter were an NHL goalie, fans would point to this statistic as proof that he “comes through in the clutch.”

Goaltenders with Higher Power Play Save % than Even Strength

The gap of .096 between Toivenen’s penalty killing performance and Raycroft’s is the largest across the NHL among the eight teams with two goaltenders facing at least 35 shots. If the criteria are changed to include the who have two goaltenders that have faced 25 shots or more, the Bruins rank third among 16 teams, behind Atlanta (.149) and Washington (.127).

Margin between Goaltenders

One factor that might put the brakes on this entire analysis is that since Raycroft is out with an injury, the Bruins goaltenders have been playing at different times in the season, as opposed to a straight platoon. That begs the question: Is Toivonen outperforming Raycroft in shorthanded situations, or has the penalty killing in front of the goalies improved as the season has progressed, and Toivonen merely the beneficiary of that improvement?

With Toivonen in net, the Bruins have killed off 38 of 44 shorthanded situations (.863) compared to a penalty killing percentage of just .811 (43 of 53) when Raycroft is between the pipes. Interestingly, Toivonen has faced nine more shots than Raycroft in nine fewer power plays.

One could argue that Toivonen faces more shots because his penalty killers are worse in front of him. But I’m inclined to think that he faces more shots because he allows fewer goals, as a power play goal ends the man advantage - and ends the opportunity for more power play shots on goal. Either point argues in favor of Toivonen, as he either faces more shots because or poor efforts in front of him, or because he extends opponents' power plays by keeping the puck out of the net.

Hannu has also been playing behind a penalty killing unit that has been without October’s best forward (Patrick Leahy) and recently the team's best defenseman (Brian Leetch), yet has held opponents to 1-for-19 over the last three games. Raycroft also played behind an undermanned unit for a time as Nick Boynton (holdout) and Shawn McEachern (injury, frequently the one committing the penalty) also missed time while he was the primary netminder.

Even so, the statistics indicate that Toivonen is a significant factor in the Bruins efforts to kill penalties, and he should be matched up against strong power play units as Sullivan fills out his line up card.

Too Many Turnovers, or, why Hal Gill must go

My latest at BSMW Power Play, breaking down the Bruins' turnover troubles, and exposing Hal Gill as a traffic cone:

After nearly a month of the season, I find myself frustrated at what I perceive to be the Bruins greatest weaknesses: their inability to take care of the puck and defend in their own end, and back-breaking turnovers. Looking at the stats compiled by the NHL and available on www.nhl.com, I found that the Bruins take better care of the puck than I expected, and that the trouble on defense can be attributed in large part to the poor play of two veteran blueliners.

Because of the emphasis on divisional play this season, I have limited my comparisons to the five teams in the Northeast Division, except in one case outlined below. All statistics are through games of Thursday, October 27.

The Bruins don’t turn the puck over nearly as much as it seems.
While the Bruins have given the puck away at inopportune times, they have the best giveaway per game average in the division, giving the puck away less than six times per game (71 giveaways in 12 games) and taking it away nearly as often as they cough it up (67 takeaways). Among forwards, Sergei Samsonov is a team-worst –5 (9 giveaways, including a brutal turnover in Toronto Monday, setting up the game-tying shorthanded goal).

But three forwards have not turned the puck over once this season, with PJ Axelsson (+6), Glen Murray (+3) and Patrick Leahy (+2) yet to be charged with a giveaway. Tom Fitzgerald has also taken considerably more than he’s given, registering a +4 over the first 12 games. The team has combines for a total turnover ratio of –4.

Top 5 Forwards (NE Division through Thursday)

Bottom 5 forwards (NE Division through Thursday, including ties)

Hal Gill is as poor with the puck as he appears. Nick Boynton is not much better.
Among the 35 defensemen who have suited up in the Northeast Division this season, Gill is tied for second most giveaways, having turned the puck over 11 times. Only Montreal’s Sheldon Souray has more giveaways among defensemen. In fact, only 12 of the league’s 227 defensemen have more turnovers than Gill (Calgary’s Rhett Warrener has an NHL-worst 19 giveaways).

Compounding things further, Gill has only been credited with 2 takeaways in the first 12 games. His –9 turnover ratio is worst among all defensemen in the Northeast, and seventh worst across the entire NHL (Warrener also leads in that category at –13). Nick Boynton has hardly been better, his –6 turnover ratio is tied for fourth-worst in the division. The Bruins defensive corps as a whole is –15, all of which is attributable to Gill and Boynton. Kevin Dallman is a team-best +2.

Bottom 5 Defensemen (NE Division through Thursday, including ties)

Top 5 Defensemen (NE Division through Thursday)

Bruins Preview

I have volunteered to reprise my role as a Sportswriter and am contributing to the BSMW Power Play blog at Boston Sports Media Watch. Here is my first dispatch, a preview of the Bruins' defensemen.

Returning Defensemen
Looking ahead to the 2005-06 season, the Bruins’ corps of defensemen appears to be the biggest hurdle standing in the way of a Stanley Cup run. Young veterans are the lifeblood of most successful NHL teams. The Bruins only have two and neither of them will start the season in Boston, as Nick Boynton waits for the right contract offer and Jonathan Girard is in Providence working his way back from a career-threatening injury. The team will start the season with three rookies and four thirtysomethings behind the blue line, hoping that the youth bring enough athleticism and the vets carry enough experience to propel the Bruins past the first round for the first time since 1998-99.

Hal Gill
Love him or hate him, most Bruins fans would agree that among the returning defensemen, the anchor of the defense is the 31-year-old Gill. His family in Concord and close friends from Nashoba Regional High School in Bolton would argue that the mammoth defenseman keeps the Bruins safely in harbor. But many other Bruins fans realize it’s his cement-filled skates that drag the bottom of the sea, keeping the team from operating at full efficiency, and swamping their efforts at inopportune times.

At 6-foot-7 and 255 pounds, Gill is one of the largest players in the NHL. As a young player, he gained a reputation as a future star on defense largely because of his success against then Penguins star Jaromir Jagr, who at one time called him “the hardest defenseman to get by.” Jagr may still be unable to get by Gill, but any such futility would have more to do with Jagr’s steep decline than with any improvement in Gill’s game.

Gill’s greatest strengths are his ability to rub forwards out in the corners and to use his size to clear opponents out from the front of the net. In the new NHL, where obstruction and physical play away from the puck will be scrutinized, those tactics will be penalized as interference. The emphasis in the new rules on open-ice skating and speed could expose Gill’s slow feet. Without the ability to be physical away from the puck, Gill could find himself being more traffic cone than traffic enforcer.

Gill has very limited offensive skills. He will be good for one ricochet-off-a-couple-opponents goal and a handful of assists. He has never been a presence on the power play and doesn’t figure to start now. Gill is on the books for $1.6 million in 2005-06 and will be a free agent at the end of year. He was the subject of trade rumors early in training camp, and could still be moved to free up space to resign holdout Nick Boynton if the team needs to match a high offer from another team, or could go to a contender late in the season if the Bruins fall out of the race.

Jiri Slegr
In contrast to the big defensive-minded Gill is the sneaky offense of the veteran Slegr, who returns for his first full season in Boston. Slegr came to Boston just past the midpoint of the 2003-04 season, and made a significant contribution, recording 19 points in just 36 games.

Slegr is a strong skater, has an above-average shot from the point, and could thrive offensively under the new rules if he stays healthy. Listed at six-feet and 200 pounds, Slegr is a tad undersized compared to many NHL defensemen, but the new emphasis on speed and playmaking ability should enhance his value to the Bruins. While his reputation has been built on offense, his defensive statistics are solid, with a career plus/minus of +34 and five seasons above a +10.

But health and consistency have been problems for the 34-year old Czech. Slegr has appeared in more than 65 games only three times in his 10 NHL seasons, and has bounced around since joining the Vancouver Canucks in 1992-93. He has played for the Oilers, Penguins, Thrashers, Red Wings, Canucks again and the Bruins. During that time, he also spent the ‘96-97 and ’02-03 seasons in Europe.

If Slegr is healthy, he should provide the Bruins an offensive spark from the blue line. In 2004, he played on the second power-play pairing, and may see some time there again this season if the Bruins go with two defensemen (they have been using Brian Leetch and a forward as point men with the man advantage through much of the preseason).

Slegr is coming off a strong lockout season in the Czech league (29 points, +7, and an uncharacteristic 135 penalty minutes in 46 games), and is a relative bargain at $950,000. He is on a one-year contract and will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season.

Ian Moran
Another short-money veteran in the final year of his contract is Moran, who returns to Boston after suffering a season-ending ankle injury in December, 2003 that limited him to just 35 games. The six-foot, 200-pound Moran isn’t known for his offensive skills, skating ability, or physical strength. In fact, he is unremarkable in most phases of the game. But like a pitcher who eats up innings and can spot start or pitch in long relief, Moran is most valuable for his versatility.

The 33-year old Boston College product has been playing more right wing than defense through the preseason and appears to be settling into a role on the fourth line, although he would be available as a seventh defenseman. With three rookies likely opening the season in the defensive rotation and the uncertainties that follow, the flexibility Moran brings to the lineup may be more a necessity than a luxury.

Regardless of his role on any given night, Moran will not be lighting the lamp frequently. In his nine NHL seasons, he has recorded double digits in points just twice, with a career high 12 points (4 goals, 8 assists) with Pittsburgh in 1999-2000. He is paid like a utility man, counting just $456,000 against the cap.

Nick Boynton
Of course, the elephant in the room (or maybe more appropriately, not in the room) is fourth-year defenseman Nick Boynton. Boynton is the big, young, veteran defenseman that any Stanley Cup contender needs and he’s sitting at home in Ontario somewhere, waiting to come to terms on a contract.

An October 1 story in the Boston Globe reported that the Bruins and Boynton were still $150,000 apart on a contract. Boynton is asking for the $1.9 million he’d have received if the Bruins had picked up the option on his contract. The Bruins have reportedly offered $1.75 million. Is this a case of Jeremy Jacobs and the Bruins brass trying to prove a point? Hard to say, but would it surprise anyone to see Boynton eventually sign sometime in November for $1,899,995? Or for $2 million plus if another team signs him to an offer sheet forcing the Bruins to match?

Assuming he gets into camp and can get into game shape quickly, the 27-year-old Boynton has the potential to be a game-changing player. TSN.ca projects his career potential as “a number one defenseman,” and his statistical curve suggests he is on his way. Entering his fourth full season, Boynton has increased his point total every year, registering 30 points last season, and is +45 over those 239 games. Boynton has also been durable, missing just seven games over his three full NHL seasons.

At 6-2, 220, Boynton is a force in his own end, yet he is agile enough to carry the puck and headman the break. He is an above-average stick-handler and is a threat to score from the point. He has been valuable both on the power-play and in the top defensive pairing killing penalties.

Jonathan Girard
The other young veteran defenseman returning to the organization is Girard, who will begin the season in Providence. The 25-year-old had become a valuable contributor on the blue line before a life-threatening automobile accident sidelined him after the 2002-03 season.

Girard broke into the Bruins lineup at the age of 18, and played parts of four seasons with the Bruins before sticking with the club for all of 2002-03. Before his accident, he was considered a strong skater and showed occasional flashes of offensive brilliance. He was the final player sent to Providence, and could be called back in case of an injury, or if any of the three rookies falter.

According to a September 30 report in the Worcester Telegram and Gazette, Girard must decide before he appears in 30 games in Providence or Boston whether or not to continue his career or retire. The report claimed that if Girard appears in 30 or more games, he will forfeit an estimated $3 million insurance settlement stemming from his crash two summers ago. Whether or not he is recalled in the first two months of the season could be a factor in his decision. If he spends the season with Boston, he stands to make $956,000 this season. If he spends the season in Providence, the Boston Globe has reported that he will make in the neighborhood of $75,000. Girard would set the AHL’s all-time records in every category before he’d accumulate $3 million at that salary. If Girard cannot crack the Bruins’ lineup by December, he may be facing a difficult decision.

Nothing says Christian like assassination

From USA Today:

VIRGINIA BEACH (AP) — Religious broadcaster Pat Robertson suggested on-air that American operatives assassinate Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez to stop his country from becoming "a launching pad for communist infiltration and Muslim extremism."

"We have the ability to take him out, and I think the time has come that we exercise that ability," Robertson said Monday on the Christian Broadcast Network's The 700 Club.

"We don't need another $200 billion war to get rid of one, you know, strong-arm dictator," he continued. "It's a whole lot easier to have some of the covert operatives do the job and then get it over with...."

You know, I don't know about this doctrine of assassination, but if he thinks we're trying to assassinate him, I think that we really ought to go ahead and do it," Robertson said. "It's a whole lot cheaper than starting a war ... and I don't think any oil shipments will stop."

Robertson, 75, founder of the Christian Coalition of America and a former presidential candidate, accused the United States of failing to act when Chavez was briefly overthrown in 2002.

No habla beisbol

A little league umpire in Lakeville MA (District 7) banned a team from Methuen for speaking Spanish on the field. It's now a national story...

From the San Diego Union Tribune:

Chris Mosher, the 20-year-old manager of the Little League team in Methuen, Mass., walked out of the dugout and approached the umpire Tuesday night in the semifinals of the state tournament. Mosher wanted to know why the ump had called time and summoned the local tournament director from behind the backstop.

It was the top of the third inning. Methuen West was winning 3-1. Mosher's assistant coach had just instructed their pitcher from the Dominican Republic, in Spanish, to execute a pickoff play at second base.

Mosher began to ask what the holdup was.

"He told me, 'English only,' " Mosher said. "He said it very loudly. I said, 'If you can show me a rule, I'd be happy to follow it. But you're not going to find one.' . . . He told me if anyone speaks one more word in Spanish, they'll be ejected.

"It was sickening."

Little League officials were scrambling yesterday to implement damage control, issuing a statement admitting the unidentified umpire "made an incorrect decision" and barring him from future games this season but also saying it was too late to reconsider the game's outcome.

More from the Boston Globe:

Little League officials would not name the umpire or the district administrator who upheld the English-only call after Mosher protested from the dugout, demanding to see the prohibition in the rulebook.

The umpire and district administrator could not find anything, Mosher said, but the administrator told him he had to uphold the call in order to back the umpire. The umpire said that anyone caught speaking Spanish would be thrown out of the game. At that point Mosher relented, not wanting to hurt his team's chances.

While the umpire should be sanctioned for an incorrect call, the District Administrator should also have been sanctioned, since it's his job to make sure that the rules are followed, or to escalate to the regional office if he doesn't know. I umpire at the local, regional and sectional level and I count on the District Administrators to help me get it right if there is a protest, not "back the umpire." And I'll bet the umpire wishes the DA had called headquarters to get a correct ruling, considering all that has happened since.

Back to the Tribune, which has the only mention of what really should have happened, based on the rules...

The Little League statement did not identify the district administrator but said, "The incident could have been avoided" had "proper procedures been followed," which was for him to call a regional director for a ruling.

The proper procedure, according to rules posted on the organization's Web site: The tournament director should have contacted the regional director in Connecticut and asked for a ruling.

One point that the Tribune gets wrong, however, is the implication that race might have been a factor because the game was in Lakeville. Methuen has a significant Hispanic population, on the other hand:

Tuesday's game was run by Little League's district administrator in Lakeville, a rural town about 70 miles south. According to the 2000 U.S. Census, Lakeville is 97.3 percent white and had 104 Hispanics among its 9,821 residents.

While that statement is factual, just because the game was in Lakeville doesn't mean the umpires were from there. When District 4 champion Rutland hosted a sectional game last week, none of the umpires were Rutland umpires during the regular season. Two of the umpires work in Worcester, and I do my games in Lancaster, Berlin, and Bolton. It's likely that the umpires came from across District 7, a district that includes Brockton and other cities with significant Hispanic populations.

The story hit the AP wire and has made it across the country. Other bloggers' reactions can be noted here.

Fallen Hero

Jeff, one of my best friends and basketball teammates at SLA was a huge fan of one-time Celtic Brad Lohaus. Not because he was much good, but because Jeff could relate to him. Both were tall, plodding limited centers who scratched and clawed for playing time, but really weren't very good.

(Full disclosure: if Jeff was Brad Lohaus, I was essentially a cross between John Bagley and Terry Durod. In other words, a fat guard who did not play when the final score was in doubt.)

Anyway, it's sad when your friends' heroes end up not being so heroic, as this article in the Des Moines Register relates:

Clive police early Thursday morning arrested former University of Iowa basketball player Brad Lohaus and charged him with simple domestic assault for allegedly injuring the mother of his child.

Police were called to the Courtyard hotel, 1520 N.W. 114th St., in Clive at 1:31 a.m. after McKinsey Gonder, 23, of Badger, asked the front desk to call 911.

In an interview with the Register, Gonder said Lohaus, 40, has physically abused her before, but this is the first time police were involved.

"I hope it'll make him realize that he can't do that," she said of the charges.

and to top it off...

According to Johnson County court records, Lohaus was to stand trial Aug. 22 for charges of second-degree theft. He is accused of posting items for sale on eBay for which he received $1,970, then not shipping the items to the buyers or sending refunds.

I hope Jeff didn't try to buy any of his moemorabilia.

Secession is an option

All those pinko commie liberal athiests getting you down? Join the Christian Exodus to Greenville, South Carolina:

The Exodus has begun.

It began quietly, in a house with white vinyl siding and a trampoline out back, in a subdivision between Greer and Simpsonville.

That's where Frank Janoski, his wife Tammy, and their four children have come. They left Bethlehem, Pa., to be a part of the Christian Exodus.

South Carolina may not be flowing with milk and honey, but it looks like the promised land to the leaders of this group, which hopes to relocate thousands of conservative Christian families like the Janoskis from across America to the Palmetto State.

Their aim: to tip the political scales, which they see as already weighted heavily to the right, further in that direction.

Secession "is a valid option," said Janoski, a "state coordinator" for the organization -- but he hopes it doesn't come to that.

"If it's going to be ugly and bloody, nobody wants that," he said.

The group is recruiting more pioneers for this journey of faith through its Web site and plans to hold a national conference in Greenville in October, which will include information booths of local real estate agents, employers and private schools -- all the nuts and bolts needed for relocation.

Hate to get the wrong idea about these guys...

The Rev. Tony Romo, pastor of South Point Baptist Church in Pelzer, said his church will hold a "leadership meeting" for Christian Exodus on Oct. 16.

"Some people think it's some kind of whacked-out religious invasion. It's not that at all," he said.

Not at all.

Niagara Falls and Toronto

Last Week, Michelle and I vacationed in Canada. We spent two days at Niagara Falls and three days in Toronto (wasting two of those evenings watching the Red Sox embarrass themselves). Here are a couple of pictures...

American Falls.


Michelle and I at the American Falls.


Fort Niagara. The flags that fly over the fort are period flags of the nations that occupied the fort. The American flag is from 1816, the British flag is from the late-1700s, and the white flag is the flag of 18th century France. (Insert your own French surrender joke here.)


The CN tower from our seats at Rogers Centre (formerly the SkyDome).


Two smiling Red Sox fans at Rogers Centre, 30 minutes before Wade Miller allowed six runs in the bottom of the first.

Saturday Hike -- Mt. Wachusett to North Rutland

Of the sections of the Midstate Trail that we have hiked so far, this was one of the least fulfilling, since over half of the trail ran over residential streets, but there was one highlight.

The first 2 1/2 miles or so of the trail (from Westminster Road at the base of Mt. Wachusett to rte. 62) ran almost entirely across the Mass. Audubon Society's Wachusett Meadow Wildlife Sanctuary. The trail was pretty well marked, and the sanctuary includes a number of different styles of terrain, including some areas of dense pine forest, some more open hardwood forests, and a couple of meadows.


While the forested areas are nice to hike through, especially when it is warm, I wish there were more meadows like this one along the trail. I also wish there was less on-road hiking, as nearly all of the rest of the over 6-mile hike was along residential roads. The only exception was a half-mile or so hike along a nearly impassable service road through a state reservation on the Princeton/Rutland town line.

Total Hike: 6.4 miles.
Midstate Trail to date: 35.9 miles.
Total summer to date: 43.0 miles.

What constitutes a fireable offense?

I've been waiting to see if this story would hit the blogoshpere, and what reaction to it would be:

Pregnancy cost teacher her job

By LOU MUMFORD
[South Bend] Tribune Staff Writer

BERRIEN SPRINGS -- At a meeting last week with school officials, Christine John was congratulated on her March marriage, John says.

Then, said the first-year kindergarten teacher at the Village Seventh-day Adventist Elementary School, she was asked why she was four months along in her pregnancy when she had been married just two months before.

John said the meeting ended when she was told her services were no longer necessary.

In a statement prepared by the Niles-based Edwin Bertram agency, she said she wasn't allowed to retrieve her belongings or return to the school during regular school hours.

"I was very surprised. Shocked,'' she said Tuesday. "I had no clue what the meeting was about.''

Now, the 24-year-old John is considering legal action. School officials said John wasn't fired but was placed on administrative leave.

Michael Nickless, communication director for the Michigan Conference of Seventh-day Adventists, released the following statement:

"The Seventh-day Adventist Church operates nearly 50 Christian schools in the state of Michigan. In these schools, we follow the teachings of Jesus as understood by the Seventh-day Adventist Church.

"Each of our teachers is issued a 'Ministry of Teaching' license. In our school system, our teachers are expected to be a positive spiritual example for our congregations and youth.

"When she (John) chose behavior contrary to those values, she was placed on administrative leave. Even though policy allows for immediate dismissal, out of compassion, her present contract continues to be honored and she will receive full pay and benefits until the contract expires.''

John said her contract with the school system runs through June 8. She questioned why she was singled out.

"Working there, I've seen a lot of things that were done that were against our policy and those people haven't been fired,'' she said.

A 2003 graduate of Seventh-day Adventist Andrews University in Berrien Springs, John, 24, said she hadn't encountered any disciplinary problems with her job until last week.

The Stevensville resident said she and her husband, whom she didn't identify, had been dating two-and-a-half years.

After she became pregnant, she said she talked to school Principal John Chen about taking a maternity leave.

"I never tried to hide the situation,'' she said.

At her meeting with Chen and two other administrators from the Lake Union Conference of Seventh-day Adventists, John said she was told premarital sex is an act strictly forbidden by the school system and the Seventh-day Adventist religion.

Whether she has legal recourse or not, she said she'll look next for a job "with people who accept me.''

It'll most likely be with a public school system, she added, rather than a private one.

And finally, someone has picked it up. The unabashedly liberal Pandagon.net found it and posted it without much comment. Somewhat surprisingly, it was the post that generated the most reader comments over the course of the weekend. Most of the comments fell into two categories: readers who took this as an example of Fundamentalist religion further encroaching on privacy rights, and readers who said that this was not a good example of that trend, since the teacher was at a private religious school and therefore was aware that certain activities (like pre-marital pregnancy) were precluded.

In my opinion, Mrs. John knew that she was going to be in trouble, which is why she told the principal ahead of time. I certainly hope she wasn't asked by the school board "why she was four months along in her pregnancy when she had been married just two months before." If so, that's an awful way to approach things. But in the end, the church and the school have the right (others might say the responsibility) to avoid situations such as this one.

A question that arose from the discussion at Pandagon: One poster wondered if the situation would have been different if the teacher were a man. I would hope it would not be different, but I'm not sure. The Adventist church is paternalistic enough that the teacher might have been handled differently (read: not fired) if it were a man.

Another blog that has picked up the story:
Premeptivekarma.com