Fun with redistricting

A couple of weeks ago, I came across this web application that allows the use to create congressional district maps with accurate information from every voting precinct in the country. As you assign precincts to a district, it calculates the population in the proposed district and the deviation from the perfect district size...the thing is absolutely incredible.

As you can imagine, I've been geeked up on this thing, creating different scenarios for Massachusetts when we come up for redistricting in 2012. So far, I've run  four scenarios. In all of them, I'm assuming that Massachusetts will be left with just nine districts, which means that one congressional seat has to vanish. In three of the four scenarios, I'm also assuming that incumbents will remain in their districts and that the Democratic legislature is the ones doing the redistricting.

The first scenario I ran is one that has been seen as likely ever since it became clear that Massachusetts would lose a district. There has been speculation that 1st District Representative John Olver might retire after the 2011-12 session, allowing the first district to be the one that is dissolved. Here is the way I would redistrict the state based on that assumption:

Here, I've combined the western parts of the first and second districts to create one district that is essentially the Connecticut River Valley and the Berkshires. To compensate for that, I've moved Jim McGovern's district north and west, to include most of the populated areas of Worcester County west to the liberal bastion of Amherst. The southern leg of McGovern's old district is now split between Ed Markey and Barney Frank. Finally, I've extended Niki Tsongas's district west along the NH border, giving her a district where most of her population is in the Merrimack Valley and most of her land area is in the rural north.

In scenario 2, Niki Tsongas is defeated by a Republican challenger (not necessarily likely, but she is probably the most vulnerable to a challenge).

In this case, I have carved up the old fifth district into the first, third, fourth, sixth, and seventh districts, essentially leaving the old district with no base on which a Republican incumbent could run. I've also put Carlisle--home of top Republican candidate Jon Golnik--into the district of powerful Rep. Jim McGovern, along with urban centers like Worcester, Fitchburg, Leominster, Marlborough, and Lowell. Actually, this isn't a bad map at all.

There has been a lot of buzz over challengers to Bill Delahunt in the 10th district. In scenario 3, I combine the ninth and 10th districts, forcing a Republican to have to run against Conservative Boston Democrat Steven Lynch to retain his seat.

This scenario forces some pretty significant gerrymandering south of Boston and in Metro West (for instance, the 40 miles from Grafton to Logan Airport would take one across seven districts). I don't really like this solution, but the legislature will do what it has to do to give a Democrat the chance to retake the seat.

Finally, I gamed out a district map with no regard to incumbency or current borders:

District 1 would be Springfield and the Berkshires. District 2 is Central Mass. and the Quabbin region to Amherst. District 3 is the 495 belt. District 4 is the Merrimack Valley. District 5 is 128 and Metro West. District 6 is the North Shore. District 7 is Boston and Quincy. District 8 is 95 South, and District 9 is the South Shore, South Coast, and the Cape and Islands. I really like this.

Oh, and since you can set the number of districts you want in the application (up to 500), one could also game out maps for the 40 State Senate and 160 State Representative Districts. But even that might be a little too geeky for me.

Nathan Bech wrong on redistricting

I have to give Republican congressional candidate Nathan Bech a little credit. He certainly has taken one campaign strategy to heart and run with it: slam your opponent for every position he takes (In the campaign handbook there is probably a note that says the exception to the rule is that if your opponent actually says something true or sensible you should forgo criticism of it, but I'm guessing Bech just stopped reading when he got to the part about attacking).

What is the basis for Bech's latest attack? Congressman John Olver said last week that if Massachusetts loses a congressional district after the 2010 censust, the state house should combine the four counties of Western Massachusetts into one district.

I've gotta say, that's about the most sensible thing I've ever heard from John Olver.

But, since Bech's book says you must attack even the best and most obviously true statements of your opponent, Nathan Bech replied with this:

"This plan will obliterate the leverage of our poorest and most rural communities," Bech said in a statement. "I still want to fight for Gardner, Athol, Leominster, and Fitchburg."

First, Gardner, Athol, Leominster, and Fitchburg don't qualify as our poorest and most rural communities. Maybe Athol would be on the "poorest" list, but none of them are at all rural.

And one more thing...Those of us in North Central Worcester County don't want you or John Olver or anyone else from the land of Shay's Rebellion representing us. We share common issues with Worcester, not Pittsfield, Amherst and Greenfield. The best thing for us would be for the state house to redistrict us into Jim McGovern's third district where we belong.

Ask any citizen of the North County what they think of John Olver and 80% of them will say "Who?" Ask nearly any politician in the North County about John Olver and they will roll their eyes. To a person, they would rather share a district with Worcester than with the Berkshires.

If Nathan Bech wants to make hay with voters here, he ought to heartily endorse Olver's plan to redistrict us out of his territory, but make the argument about being fair to the people of the North County, as opposed to Olver's explanation of how it would benefit the West.

But that would mean agreeing with the opponent, a tactic missing from the Bech playbook.

Tags: Massachusetts John Olver Election 2008 Congress Redistricting Nathan Bech