Tuesday Roundup: Rock the boat (don't rock the boat, baby)

Let's start our Tuesday spin around the region with the Congressional race in the Fifth District, where Sam Meas (R-Haverhill) rocked John Kerry over the recent controversy surrounding Kerry's yacht:

In a press release issued last week, Meas said the "nautical and tax-dodging misadventures of our aristocratic Senior Senator, John F. Kerry, firmly solidify his reputation as being total out of touch with his constituents."

Kerry, of course, has come under heavy fire for registering his new, $7 million, 76-foot yacht "Isabel," in Rhode Island instead of his home state of Massachusetts, ostensibly to avoid paying taxes on the costly craft.

At its core, this story illustrates the need to scrap our oppressive, unjust and obscenely complex tax system and replace it with something simpler and more fair..."

Of course, Kerry has been accused of docking his boat in Rhode Island to avoid paying state--not federal --taxes, so should he be elected to Congress, Meas wouldn't have any standing to change the tax system he accuses Kerry of dodging.

Poweline followed up The Weekly Standard's profile of Meas with a note from a reader touting Jon Golnik (R-Carlisle) as the best challenger in the field.

Second Congressional District
Rep. Richard Neal (D-Springfield) traveled to Lee's Summit, Mo. to celebrate the 75th anniversary of Social Security at a series of town hall meetings with Missouri Congressman Emanuel Cleaver.

Third Congressional District
Robert Chipman (R-Plainville) wrote to the Attleboro Sun-Chronicle describing his side of a dispute over lawn signs in Plainville.

Michael Stopa (R-Holliston) and Brian Herr (R-Hopkinton) attended a Tea Party event in Northboro to hear arguments against granting citizenship to illegal immigrants.

Second Worcester House District
Three of the five candidates for the open seat--Rich Bastien (R-Gardner), Carolyn Kamuda (U-Gardner), and Amy Feeley-Knuuttila (D, Winchendon) were endorsed by Citizens for Limited Taxation.

13th Worcester House District
Sean Dacey at Unfashionable Sentiments takes stock of the number of lawn signs in his neighborhood.

Middlesex and Worcester Senate District
37th Middlesex House District
In a surprise to no one, the Young Democrats of Massachusetts endorsed Sen. Jamie Eldridge (D-Acton). Previously, the YDMA announced their support for Rep. Jen Benson (D-Lunenburg).

Finally, thanks to Shaun Sutner of the Telegram, who had nice things to say about this blog in his online daily ElectionNet column on telegram.com.

Bringing home the bacon

Earlier today, the House of Representatives approved a $400 billion appropriations package. Unlike the stimulus package, which had no earmarks proposed by members of the House and Senate, this bill has a lot of them, as most routine appropriations bills do. Some reports suggest there are around 9,000 of them.

Whether or not you think earmarks are necessary to get federal money to worthy projects or unnecessary pork to grease the palms of supporters--and there are probably plenty of examples of both--the fact is that they are there, and our representatives are pretty good at securing them.

Central Massachusetts looks to make out pretty nicely. Here is a list of the projects that will affect communities here in Worcester County:



The Twin Cities look to do very well in this bill. A cool $30 million for the Fitchburg commuter rail line, another $1.9 million for the parking lot at the Leominster station, and $950,000 for rail safety along the line top the list. Unfortunately Clinton, Sterling and Lancaster are not listed as recipients, but we don't have a lot in the way of federal projects in those towns.

(To digress for a moment, can someone try to remember the $1.5 million for the dams on the Wekepeke at some point in these processes? There wasn't even an effort to have it included in the stimulus package even though the project is the very definition of shovel-ready, as work was about to begin when Governor Patrick cut the funding as part of his 9C reductions. And there is plenty of money in this appropriations bill for mill pond restoration, dam repair, and other small-scale water management projects. Perhaps supporters of the Wekepeke will need to take the case directly to Representatives Olver and McGovern).

All told, the five representatives of my "home area"--John Olver (Sterling, Leominster) Jim McGovern (Clinton), Niki Tsongas (Lancaster) and Senators Kerry and Kennedy--have sponsored or co-sponsored $159,611,594 in appropriations.

Of that, a large portion of it is not for local earmarks, but rather for programs on a national scale. Nearly three-quarters of the $160 million are for programs such as the "Reading is Fundamental" program and the "We the People and Cooperative Education Exchange" that will be used in schools across the country. Almost all of the $120 million in national earmarks have broad bipartisan support, lest you think those programs are Democratic pet projects.

Looking at each of the representatives individually, John Olver is easily the biggest earmarker, with $38,862,472 targeted for community projects (not all in Central Mass.). Jim McGovern is responsible for $11,753,521 in community marks. Niki Tsongas is easily the least prolific earmarker, with only $3.3 million in sponsored projects, none in the Central Mass. area of her district.

Regarding our senators, there is a very interesting dynamic in play. Nearly all of the 144 earmarks (129 local) that were sponsored by the senators were, in fact co-sponsored--that is, both Kerry and Kennedy signed on to the earmark. Kennedy only signed onto three earmarks without Kerry's support, they are:



Kerry also only signed onto three earmarks without a co-sponsorship from Kennedy. See if you find the same humor in this list that I did:



That's right, the only three projects that Kerry supported without Kennedy's blessing are three projects named after members of Kennedy's family, including what looks to be the Ted Kennedy Presidential Senatorial Library...which suggests that Teddy at least has the good sense not to earmark money for his own projects, unlike Charlie Rangel. Doesn't say much for John Kerry's independence though, does it?

A couple of other leftover points...lest anyone complain that this is an "Obama spending bill" it's important to remember that this bill was crafted during the last congress. Many of the sponsors are former members of congress from both parties. In researching the bills listed here, there were co-sponsorships from John Sununu, Christopher Shays, Joe Biden, and other former members of congress who have moved on.

Also interesting in light of that is that a number of the items in the appropriations bill were also sponsored by "The President," which means that the Bush administration was on board with these requests. Looking at the list of Massachusetts projects five of them were co-sponsored by President Bush, including the $30 million for the Fitchburg rail line, $5.6 million for operations at Boston Harbor, $4.9 million for Dam Construction on the Muddy River, $372,000 for construction of a hurricane barrier in Buzzards Bay, and $215,000 for a study of the Merrimack River watershed.

Tags: Massachusetts Congress Earmarks John Olver Jim McGovern John Kerry Ted Kennedy Leominster

My primary ballot and predictions

Here is how I plan to vote in the primary tomorrow...

State Representative Harold Naughton deserves to be reelected, and will receive my vote. He has been a strong advocate for the citizens of this district and is well equipped to continue as our representative. Challenger Steve Kerrigan is also a credible candidate, but he has not made a case that Naughton should be replaced and has not proposed specific solutions.

I strongly support Jennifer Flanagan for State Senate. Not only has Flanagan brought millions of dollars in aid to the North County while serving as Leominster's state rep., but she has also taken a leadership role in state wide issues, including her advocacy for education and public health bills. Flanagan has also shown progressive positions on social issues, including abortion and gay marriage. Brian Knuuttila has campaigned hard during the race and would likely bring that intensity to the state house, but his conservative views on social issues and a series of campaign gaffes which reveal a lack of organization are red flags.

Congressman John Olver will most likely be renominated to another term , but I will vote for challenger Robert Feuer in the U.S. Congress race. Feuer made a thoughtful case for his candidacy when he visited Sterling last month. Conversely, Congressman Olver was dour and aloof in his interaction with our Democratic Town Committee.

Finally, I will mark my ballot for John Kerry in the U.S. Senate race. Kerry has the sort of steady hand we need in the senate, and it is especially important that he return to the Senate with the uncertainty surrounding Senator Ted Kennedy's health. I do not believe Ed O'Reilly has the temperament to be an effective senator.

Here are my predictions:

Naughton 58...Kerrigan 42. Kerrigan got off to a great start early in the summer, but without making a case for why Naughton should go, he won't get enough support to go over the top. Still, it will be closer than I'd have expected back in May.

Flanagan 56...Knuuttila 44. For most of the summer I've been sure that Flanagan would hit low- to mid-60s and win in a walk. I'm not sure why, but my gut tells me that Knuuttila has been coming on a little in the last two weeks. Can't explain it, just a hunch. Not enough to win, mind you, but a respectable showing nonetheless. (Keep in mind that I badly underestimated Flanagan's support in the 2006 election, for what that's worth.)

Olver 70...Feuer 30. What is the statistic? That any candidate will lose at least 25% of the vote no matter who they are running against? My guess is that Feuer has only been able to contact enough people to add 5 points to that base.

Kerry 66...O'Reilly 34. I think election day will prove that the O'Reilly campaign has been much more smoke than fire. There is no chance that O'Reilly wins, and almost no chance that he is even close. If O'Reilly breaks 45%, I'll make a music video of myself singing Willie Nelson and Julio Iglesias' "To all the Girls I've Loved Before" and post it on YouTube.

Tags: Massachusetts Election 2008 State Senate Flanagan Knuuttila State House Harold Naughton Stephen Kerrigan Congress Robert Feuer John Olver John Kerry Ed O'Reilly Senate

Dem Convention: Voting my Conscience

In the end, when they called my name to vote for the nomination for senator, I switched my vote to John Kerry. I had planned to vote for challenger Ed O'Reilly because I believe that the 3,500 or so delegates at the convention shouldn't invalidate the will of the 10,000 plus voters who signed the papers to put him on the ballot. I was not going to be part of any effort to keep O'Reilly off. But over the 18 hours leading up to the vote, I had a change of heart.

The doubts began to creep in as the O'Reilly party on Friday night. I arrived at the Doubletree Hotel right exactly at 5:00, the time the party was scheduled to begin. As I walked from the parking garage, I noticed O'Reilly people unloading huge signs from trucks and carrying them into the lobby. At 5:00. As the party was supposed to begin. I figured there was no sense in me heading straight to the event (since they apparently were still setting up) so I hung out in the lobby, checked my phone messages, admired the view of the canal from the patio, looked to see if they had free Internet in the business center (they did not) and then went on up about 20 minutes after 5:00. As I entered, I noticed there were about 40 other delegates mingling, and staffers still affixing signs to the walls. I was struck with the sense that the O'Reilly campaign wasn't particularly well organized. That impression was furthered as the candidate's most high-profile endorser, the Progressive Democrats of America, continued setting up their table, signs, etc. until well after 6:00.

While the lack of organization was a red flag (if you can't organize a reception, how are you going to run a senate office) that didn't leave as negative an impression as the candidate himself. I wanted to meet the candidate, shake his hand, and try to get an idea of what he was about. Of course I wasn't the only one--everyone at the reception who wasn't already a committed supporter was there for the same reason--and I was willing to wait my turn. The problem is that my turn wasn't really my turn. I shook O'Reilly's hand, introduced myself, and someone tapped him on the shoulder. He left to speak with other gentleman before I could even start a conversation. A few moments later, O'Reilly noticed that I was still there, mentioned to the man that had interrupted us that he needed to get back to talk to me, and then was intercepted by another party-goer. After about 15 minutes of talking to this person and that, he finally got back to me. I took away the impression that he was flighty and had a hard time focusing on what I--or anyone else--had to say for even a short moment.

I was able to quickly compare O'Reilly to Senator Kerry as the Senator was heading into the hotel at the same time I was heading out. There were a handful of other people in front of the hotel and Kerry took the opportunity to talk with each one. When he got to me, he shook my hand, we spoke for about a minute, and he posed for a photo. The entire time, other people outside the hotel were trying to get his attention, but he remained focused on me the entire time. Whether he was genuinely interested in what I had to say or whether he had learned to appear interested through years of practice I can't say, but I came away from my encounter with Kerry with a much higher regard for him on a personal level than I did for O'Reilly.

Still, I arrived at the convention with every intention of voting for O'Reilly based on the principle that he deserved a spot, regardless of how bad a candidate he appeared to be. Then O'Reilly gave his speech, and I really had a decision to make. I realize that he was rushing to get his remarks in under 12 minutes, but he was loud, and shrill, and screaming, and angry. He sounded like he'd never given a speech using a microphone before. He didn't modulate his voice or soften his speech, even when speaking about his own background. He spent a good part of his speech ripping Kerry, instead of giving a rationale for his own candidacy.

Following his speech, I was left with a dilemma: On principle, I believe ballot access is a good thing. If I vote on principle, I'd vote for O'Reilly. But I was completely convinced that John Kerry would be a significantly better senator that O'Reilly. If I vote my conscience, I'd vote for Kerry.

I watched the crowds during the nominating speeches, and it appeared that O'Reilly might just have enough support on the floor to get to 15%, but I wasn't sure. When it was time to vote I was helped in my decision by the fact that the votes are called alphabetically by town. Two trends stood out to me: first, all of the top Democrats in our delegation (including Senator Bob Antonioni, Representatives Bob Rice, Hank Naughton, Steve DiNatale, and Jennifer Flanagan, Fitchburg Mayor Lisa Wong, and Register of Deeds Kathy Daignault) were no-shows at the convention. If that trend was applicable among other delegations, then a number of committed Kerry supporters were not in attendance to vote (I'll have more on this in another post). Secondly, nearly all of the attending delegates from Gardner and Fitchburg cast votes for O'Reilly. Doing the math in my head and noting that at there were still O'Reilly voters from Westminster still to vote after Sterling was called, it was clear that O'Reilly would do well above the 15% in our delegation regardless of how I voted. If that were the case across other delegations, then O'Reilly should be safe to hit the 15% threshold.

Taking all of that into consideration I voted my conscience and supported Senator Kerry. In the end, O'Reilly took 23% of the delegates. So I guess I got all of what I wanted. The principle of ballot access was upheld, and I was able to support the best man for the job.

Tags: Massachusetts Election 2008 John Kerry Ed O'Reilly Democratic Senate Convention

I've been beseeched

A Kerry supporter reached out to me yesterday in an effort to dissuade me from voting for Ed O'Reilly at tomorrow's convention. While Kerry supporters have been calling me once a week or so to get my vote, this time the outreach was a little more forceful. This supporter came across my earlier post and emailed me a passionate response, "beseeching" me to vote for the Senator. One of the implied reasons: A vote for O'Reilly hurts Barack Obama and Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire.

....we can either begin the coordinated campaign in June, and start the hard work of winning these seats immediately, or after the Primary in September, leaving Mass residents to organize themselves for trips northward and paying for their own gas.

I beseech you, if you are planning on voting for us in the Primary and General, please support us at the convention. We have far too much work to do this Summer defeating McCain and the Republicans.

Maybe I'm a little naive about the threat O'Reilly poses, but it doesn't seem to me that the Kerry people are going to have to spend that much time and effort in Massachusetts for him to win the primary. And while I don't have much experience coordinating campaigns, I'd expect that Obama at least will have plenty of volunteers available to be organized and sent to New Hampshire if necessary.

I appreciate the hard work of the Kerry supporters in trying to clear the ballot for the September primary, but my position is based solely in my opposition to the 15% rule and my belief that contested elections and a debate of the issues is a good thing for the people of Massachusetts.

Tags: Massachusetts Election 2008 John Kerry Ed O'Reilly Democratic Senate

Herald shocker: Politician plays politics!

In one of the least stunning, least shocking developments on the political landscape, Senator John Kerry's campaign is trying to round up enough state convention delegates to put him on the primary ballot and keep challenger Ed O'Reilly off. Democratic party rules require candidates to gain the support of 15% of the delegates at Saturday's convention in order to qualify for the ballot, so if Kerry can get 85% plus one, O'Reilly's campaign will end before it begins.

This rule has been around for a long time and there is a floor fight for delegates every time there is a contested election. Most recently, Tom Reilly fought like hell to keep Chris Gabrieli off the gubernatorial ballot in 2006 and was nearly successful, with Gabrieli squeaking by with hardly a vote to spare. It happens all the time.

But leave it to the Boston Herald to find drama and intrigue where there is none:

U.S. Sen. John Kerry - wary of a potential political embarrassment - has been calling in favors to top Bay State Democrats in a bid to block a Gloucester lawyer from getting on the ballot to challenge him, the Herald has learned.

Several high-ranking Democrats said the senator has reached out in recent days seeking support and asking for help in preventing attorney Ed O’Reilly from getting the convention votes he needs to force a September primary race against Kerry....

Insiders say Kerry has drawn the ire of some party officials for backing Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton in the presidential primary race and that some may use Saturday’s convention to exact political payback....

“In a (presidential) primary race as close as this one has been, it would not surprise me to see people take sides and for there to be hard feelings,” said state Sen. Jack Hart. “I know the Kerry campaign is calling around to all the delegates, which they haven’t done in the past, asking for their support.”

If O’Reilly gets on the ballot, he would be Kerry’s first primary opponent since 1984.

The lede suggests that the Senator is "calling in favors to top Bay State Democrats" but the only evidence of that is State Senator Hart's suggestion that Kerry is "calling around to all the delegates." I can vouch for the latter; as a delegate, I have received several calls from Kerry organizers asking for my support. I suppose I should be flattered that the Herald considers me a "top Bay State Democrat." Perhaps I should put that on a business card or something.

Further, reporter Dave Wedge suggests that perhaps Kerry might not get past the 85% threshold because Clinton supporters will be piqued over his support of Obama, a premise which seems to me to be particularly silly.

The reason Kerry's campaign is calling all of us top Bay State Democrats looking for support is because he has an opponent for the first time since 1984. Had Kerry been opposed in 1990 or 1996 or 2002, he would have been canvassing for support before those conventions. It has nothing to do with Hillary Clinton or Kerry fearing embarrassment; it is because Kerry wants as much support at the convention as possible in an effort to run unopposed.

While I support Senator Kerry and will be voting for him in both the primary and the general election, I will be standing for Ed O'Reilly at the convention Saturday. I do not support the party's 15% rule and believe that any candidate who files the necessary 10,000 signatures has demonstrated enough support to qualify for the ballot. We should make it easier to run for office and tear down the barrier that allows top Bay State Democrats to squash a candidacy before it gets off the ground. Elections are good things, and I hope O'Reilly makes it onto the ballot.

Then the voters can decide to squash his candidacy in September.

Tags: Massachusetts Election 2008 John Kerry Ed O'Reilly Democratic Senate

Blame me for the Schilling stories

BREAKING NEWS...MUST CREDIT NO DRUMLINS!
CURT SCHILLING MAY RUN FOR SENATE

So, three-and-a-half months after I started the whole Curt Schilling for Senate thing by explaining exactly why Schilling would make a great candidate, the story finally has some legs. Sure, it took a talk-show caller to get the ball rolling. But I didn't really expect a whole lot to come of it in the first place.

I kind of thought it was going to take off back in November when I first wrote the article here and cross-posted it at Blue Mass Group. Universal Hub linked to the post and the Hub Blog pooh poohed the idea, but after a couple of days of traffic, things settled down.

But not completely. Out of the blue about a month later, I received an email from the political editor at an in-state TV news organization, wanting to do an on-air piece about my post:

From: TV Personality [mailto:TV Personality@WXXX-TV]
Sent: Monday, December 04, 2006 2:34 PM
To: nodrumlins@comcast.net
Subject: schilling gop

I saw your posting about Schilling saving the GOP and wondered if you got any feedback. I'm the political editor at XXXXXX and might do something funny about it. Let me know. Write back or call at XXX-XXX-XXXX.

I was a little wary, I got the impression that he thought the post was a joke. Or at least he thought the idea was a joke. After replying, I received another email which confirmed my suspicions:

From: TV Personality [mailto:TV Personality@WXXX-TV]
Sent: Tuesday, December 05, 2006 3:59 PM
To: nodrumlins
Subject: RE: schilling gop

did you post it just as a joke or do you think schilling might actually be interested someday? Would like to talk to you on phone about it. you can call me if you want at XXX-XXX-XXXX

I tried to convince the editor that there was a real story here:

From: nodrumlins [mailto:nodrumlins@comcast.net]
Sent: Tue 12/5/2006 4:59 PM
To: TV Personality
Subject: RE: schilling gop

No, I was serious. I don’t know if he’d be interested or not, but with all the stories after the election about how the Republican party had essentially lost viability in the state, I was trying to think of a Republican who might be able to compete in a state-wide election. I’d bet if you polled voters today about their preferences, Schilling would lead any other Republicans in a potential primary match-up, and would lead at least a couple of potential Dems in a general election.

For instance, I listed Kerry Healey, Paul Cellucci, Wayne Budd, and Ralph Martin as other potential Republicans, and the more savvy readers at Blue Mass Group mentioned Charlie Baker. If you were to poll those six names among likely Republican primary voters, I’ll bet Schilling would have a double-digit lead.

Among potential Dems, if you match him Schilling up against Jim McGovern, Marty Meehan, Ed Markey, or Stephen Lynch, I’ll bet he’d be even or ahead. He would probably trail Barney Frank or John Kerry, but Kerry’s negatives are so high even that might be close.

In the end, I don’t know that he would win, but I imagine he could energize the campaign and turn Mass. into a top-tier Senate race for ’08.

Essentially, I gave this editor the story six weeks before WRKO found it. I declined to go on camera--both because I wished to remain somewhat anonymous and because I feared he would be making fun of me more than taking me seriously--and apparently that was reason enough not to run with the story.

And now, the story has taken off on its own. WRKO started a petition drive to draft Schilling. Channel 7 included it in their 6 o'clock news. The Herald fronted the story in this morning's paper, and made more news when Schilling wouldn't rule it out:

“I couldn’t rule it out because it’s not something I ever thought about in a serious capacity,” Schilling told the Herald.

“I envision that I will probably be pretty busy in 2008,” he said. “But I’m flattered as hell to even make this phone call.”

And I'm flattered as hell that someone is running with the story.

Tags: Massachusetts Election 2008 Senate John Kerry Curt Schilling Republican