Which NFL games will we get each week? 2007 Edition

Every year I try to look at the NFL schedule and guess which games we in the Boston area will get to see on local TV week-by-week. Last year I was right on 70% of the games that were up for grabs (afternoon and flex games not including the Patriots). The formula I use to pick the games is explained here. Here is the expected TV schedule:

WEEK 1
Thursday, Sep. 6
8:30 PM NBC New Orleans at Indianapolis
Sunday, Sep. 9
1:00 PM CBS New England at N.Y. Jets
1:00 PM FOX Philadelphia at Green Bay
4:15 PM FOX Chicago at San Diego
8:15 PM NBC N.Y. Giants at Dallas
Monday, Sep. 10
7:00 PM ESPN Baltimore at Cincinnati
10:15 PM ESPN Arizona at San Francisco

Notes: An easy week to pick the FOX games. These should be the two top games, and there are no compelling alternatives.

WEEK 2
Sunday, Sep. 16
1:00 PM FOX Green Bay at N.Y. Giants
1:00 PM CBS Indianapolis at Tennessee
4:15 PM CBS N.Y. Jets at Baltimore
8:15 PM NBC San Diego at New England
Monday, Sep. 17
8:30 PM ESPN Washington at Philadelphia

Notes: With the Pats in prime-time, all three Sunday afternoon slots are up for grabs. The Giants and Jets games are given. Colts-Titans should be CBS top early game. This will be a good test to see if WBZ sends us the top game, or if they stay in the division with Buffalo-Pittsburgh.

WEEK 3
Sunday, Sep. 23
1:00 PM CBS Buffalo at New England
4:15 PM FOX N.Y. Giants at Washington
8:15 PM NBC Dallas at Chicago
Monday, Sep. 24
8:30 PM ESPN Tennessee at New Orleans

Notes: Since the Pats are home on CBS and it is a Fox doubleheader, we only get one game in each Sunday slot. The Giants game is an obvious choice over Carolina-Atlanta.

WEEK 4
Sunday, Sep. 30
1:00 PM CBS N.Y. Jets at Buffalo
1:00 PM FOX St. Louis at Dallas
4:15 PM CBS Denver at Indianapolis
8:15 PM NBC Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants
Monday, Oct. 1
8:30 PM ESPN New England at Cincinnati

Notes: With the Pats in prime-time, all three Sunday afternoon slots are up for grabs. The two CBS games should be the top games in their time slots (although Kansas City-San Diego is a pretty good 4:15 games as well). Rams-Cowboys will probably be the #1 FOX game, although Green Bay-Minnesota is a possibility.

WEEK 5
Sunday, Oct. 7
1:00 PM CBS Cleveland at New England
4:05 PM FOX Tampa Bay at Indianapolis
4:15 PM CBS San Diego at Denver
8:15 PM NBC Chicago at Green Bay
Monday, Oct. 8
8:30 PM ESPN Dallas at Buffalo

Notes: Since the Pats are home on CBS, we’re forced to get the 4:05 FOX game, and Bucs-Colts is the only option. Chargers-Broncos will be the #1 CBS game.

WEEK 6
Sunday, Oct. 14
1:00 PM CBS Cincinnati at Kansas City
1:00 PM FOX Philadelphia at N.Y. Jets
4:15 PM CBS New England at Dallas
8:15 PM NBC New Orleans at Seattle
Monday, Oct. 15
8:30 PM ESPN N.Y. Giants at Atlanta

Notes: Pats-Dallas will be CBS top game. Eagles-Jets is an obvious choice for the FOX slot. There are only three CBS games at 1:00, Miami-Cleveland is the only other possibility, but that game should be such a dog that WBZ will send us Bengals-Chiefs even though a Pats’ rival is also on at 1:00.

WEEK 7
Sunday, Oct. 21
1:00 PM CBS New England at Miami
1:00 PM FOX San Francisco at N.Y. Giants
4:15 PM FOX Chicago at Philadelphia
8:15 PM NBC Pittsburgh at Denver
Monday, Oct. 22
8:30 PM ESPN Indianapolis at Jacksonville

Notes: The Pats game is usually the only one on in a given slot, but since the Pats are on the road and FOX has the doubleheader, we get an offering opposite New England. The Giants are the obvious choice (although Minnesota-Dallas will be their #1 game at 1:00). Bears-Eagles will be FOX top game of the week.

WEEK 8
Sunday, Oct. 28
1:00 PM CBS Indianapolis at Carolina
1:00 PM FOX N.Y. Giants at Miami (London)
4:15 PM FOX Washington at New England
Monday, Oct. 29
8:30 PM ESPN Green Bay at Denver

Notes: The game in London will most likely be the top Fox game, but since it features the Giants and a Pats’ rival, we’d get the game if it were played in Pittsfield. The CBS 1:00 game is a tough choice, Steelers-Bengals is another good game in that slot.

WEEK 9
Sunday, Nov. 4
1:00 PM CBS San Diego at Minnesota
1:00 PM FOX Washington at N.Y. Jets
4:15 PM CBS New England at Indianapolis
8:15 PM NBC Dallas at Philadelphia
Monday, Nov. 5
8:30 PM ESPN Baltimore at Pittsburgh

Notes: Again a couple of good options on CBS at 1:00. Jacksonville-New Orleans could easily be the choice over Chargers-Vikings. Bengals-Bills could also be an option if Buffalo is any good. The Jets game on Fox is a given.

WEEK 10
Sunday, Nov. 11
1:00 PM CBS Buffalo at Miami
1:00 PM FOX Philadelphia at Washington
4:15 PM FOX Dallas at N.Y. Giants
8:15 PM NBC Indianapolis at San Diego
Monday, Nov. 12
8:30 PM ESPN San Francisco at Seattle

Notes: With the Pats on their bye week, all three Sunday afternoon slots are up for grabs. Every 1:00 game is between division rivals, so depending on how races shape up, these could change. Unless both the Bills and Dolphins are out of contention, that will probably be the CBS game, though Denver-Kansas City or Jacksonville-Tennessee look like better match-ups. FOX will probably send us the NFC East game, although Atlanta-Carolina, Minnesota-Green Bay, and St. Louis-New Orleans are all attractive games. Cowboys-Giants will be FOX #1 game.

Beginning Week 11, all Sunday games are subject to change because of flex scheduling. I’ve laid out how I expect the games to be broadcast based on the current schedule, and have noted where I think the flex might come in.

WEEK 11
Sunday, Nov. 18
1:00 PM CBS New England at Buffalo
1:00 PM FOX Washington at Dallas
4:15 PM FOX N.Y. Giants at Detroit
8:15 PM NBC Chicago at Seattle
Monday, Nov. 19
8:30 PM ESPN Tennessee at Denver

Notes: The Pats game is usually the only one on in a given slot, but since the Pats are on the road and FOX has the doubleheader, we get an offering opposite New England. Carolina-Green Bay is the only other good FOX option at 1:00, so I think Redskins-Cowboys is a pretty secure bet, unless it gets moved to 4:15. Rams-49ers is probably FOX top 4:15 game (another reason to expect a possible change) but we’ll probably get sent the Giants just the same. Bears-Seahawks is an obvious choice to stay at 8:15.

WEEK 12
Thursday, Nov. 22
12:30 PM FOX Green Bay at Detroit
4:15 PM CBS N.Y. Jets at Dallas
8:15 PM NFL Indianapolis at Atlanta
Sunday, Nov. 25
1:00 PM CBS Denver at Chicago
1:00 PM FOX Minnesota at N.Y. Giants
4:15 PM CBS Baltimore at San Diego
8:15 PM NBC Philadelphia at New England
Monday, Nov. 26
8:30 PM ESPN Miami at Pittsburgh

Notes: With the Pats tentatively scheduled for prime-time, all three Sunday afternoon slots are up for grabs. Ravens-Chargers is the only 4:15 game, so that is the choice, although Denver-Chicago is a pretty good option to move to the late slot (or to 8:15 if the Pats or Eagles are no good). New Orleans-Carolina or Seattle-St. Louis are possibilities for the early FOX game.

WEEK 13
Thursday, Nov. 29
8:15 PM NFL Green Bay at Dallas
Sunday, Dec. 2
1:00 PM CBS N.Y. Jets at Miami
1:00 PM FOX Seattle at Philadelphia
4:15 PM FOX N.Y. Giants at Chicago
8:15 PM NBC Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Monday, Dec. 3
8:30 PM ESPN New England at Baltimore

Notes: With the Pats playing in prime-time, all three Sunday afternoon slots are up for grabs. Giants-Bears is the only 4:15 game. Seahawks-Eagles is the only good 1:00 FOX game. The Jets-Dolphins is the choice assuming at least one of them is still in the running for the division crown. Otherwise, Jacksonville-Indy or San Diego-Kansas City are also good choices. If the Bengals and Steelers are having down years, any of the games listed here could be good options to move to the NBC game.

WEEK 14
Thursday, Dec. 6
8:15 PM NFL Chicago at Washington
Sunday, Dec. 9
1:00 PM CBS Pittsburgh at New England
4:05 PM FOX Arizona at Seattle
4:15 PM CBS Kansas City at Denver
8:15 PM NBC Indianapolis at Baltimore
Monday, Dec. 10
8:30 PM ESPN New Orleans at Atlanta

Notes: Chiefs-Broncos will probably be CBS #1 game, although Cleveland-Jets could be WBZ’s choice if the Jets are still in contention for the division. The Pats-Steelers game would also be a candidate to move to 4:15 if the currently scheduled games aren’t good. Fox is required to send a 4:05 game. Cards-Seahawks could be an important divisional game, so that is the choice, but it’s a tossup whether this game will be better, or whether Minnesota-San Francisco would be.

WEEK 15
Thursday, Dec. 13
8:15 PM NFL Denver at Houston
Saturday, Dec. 15
8:15 PM NFL Cincinnati at San Francisco
Sunday, Dec. 16
1:00 PM CBS N.Y. Jets at New England
4:15 PM FOX Philadelphia at Dallas
8:15 PM NBC Washington at N.Y. Giants
Monday, Dec. 17
8:30 PM ESPN Chicago at Minnesota

Notes: Since the Pats are home on CBS and it is a Fox doubleheader, we only get one game in each Sunday slot. Eagles-Cowboys is an obvious choice (over Detroit-San Diego), although I wouldn’t be surprised to see that game swapped with the 8:15 game. Seattle-Carolina might also be a candidate to move to 4:15 or 8:15.

WEEK 16
Thursday, Dec. 20
8:15 PM NFL Pittsburgh at St. Louis
Saturday, Dec. 22
8:15 PM NFL Dallas at Carolina
Sunday, Dec. 23
1:00 PM CBS Miami at New England
4:05 PM FOX Tampa Bay at San Francisco
4:15 PM CBS N.Y. Jets at Tennessee
8:15 PM NBC Philadelphia at New Orleans
Monday, Dec. 24
8:00 PM ESPN Denver at San Diego

Notes: I’m going to go out on a limb here and guarantee that the Bucs-49ers game will not remain in that NBC slot. I’d expect Philadelphia-New Orleans to be moved to 8:15. If that happens, Bucs-49ers would move to 4:05 and replace Falcons-Cardinals locally. Baltimore-Seattle will be the top 4:15 game on CBS and will be the choice if Jets-Titans is meaningless to the Patriots.

WEEK 17
Saturday, Dec. 29
8:15 PM NFL New England at N.Y. Giants
Sunday, Dec. 30
1:00 PM FOX New Orleans at Chicago
1:00 PM CBS Pittsburgh at Baltimore
4:15 PM FOX Minnesota at Denver
4:15 PM CBS San Diego at Oakland
8:15 PM NBC Kansas City at N.Y. Jets

Notes: With the Pats playing in prime-time, all four Sunday afternoon slots are up for grabs. Chargers-Oakland is the only 4:15 CBS game currently scheduled. I’d expect another game (possibly Steelers-Ravens) to be moved to 4:15. New Orleans-Chicago is the best FOX game, although Dallas-Washington is also a 1:00 tilt and could be the choice if it’s more important to the playoff race.

Looking at the schedule, I'd suggest fans of the Giants, Cowboys, and Eagles cancel the DirecTV Sunday Ticket, since they're going to get nearly the whole schedule anyway. As with last year, we should get every team in the NFL at least once.

New England 16
NY Giants 13
Dallas 12
Philadelphia 11
Chicago 10
Indianapolis 10
NY Jets 10
Denver 9
Washington 8
Baltimore 7
Pittsburgh 7
San Diego 7
Green Bay 6
Miami 6
New Orleans 6
Buffalo 5
Cincinnati 5
San Francisco 5
Seattle 5
Minnesota 4
Tennessee 4
Atlanta 3
Kansas City 3
Arizona 2
Carolina 2
Detroit 2
St. Louis 2
Tampa Bay 2
Cleveland 1
Jacksonville 1
Houston 1
Oakland 1

Tags: New England Patriots NFL Television Schedule