Monday, January 18, 2010

Final Forecast Forecast: Toss-Up

By popular demand, the final Forecast Forecast:

The Forecast Forecast: 37.1F  Light Rain or Snow
Toss-up (Temp: Coakley +3.1, Precip: Lean Brown)

See Thursday's post for how I arrive at the forecast.

Looks like a mixed bag on Election Day. Temperatures should be about three degrees above the 30-day median (which is now 34, due to three straight days above 33), which should bode well for turnout. However, there is expected to be some light rain and/or snow--especially late in the day--which could keep soft voters home.

A wildcard is the ability of cities like Worcester, Springfield, Lowell, and Lawrence to get their streets clear. With 6 or more inches of heavy wet snow last night and this morning, if soft voters don't feel safe getting out of their driveways and down the street, they aren't going to try. The other challenge is going to be to keep surfaces safe. Temps tonight are supposed to fall into the mid 20s, so all of the slush and slop will freeze and could make walking tomorrow dangerous. Some voters could just take a pass if their sidewalks are treacherous in the morning, and then they find after things have begun to thaw, it's started to rain or snow again.

Anyway, here is the data, as of 10:00am, January 18:

Channel 4: 35F Chance of Snow Showers
Channel 5: 38F Light Rain/Snow Mix
Channel 7: 34F Light Snow in the afternoon, 1-2" possible
Channel 25: 38F Chance of Light Rali/Snow
NECN: 39F Rain Showers
NWS: 38F Rain or Snow Likely, little or no accumulation
TWC: 37F 60% chance of Light Rain/Snow
WUND: 38F Rain Showers

(NECN: New England Cable News; NWS: National Weather Service; TWC: The Weather Channel; WUND: Weather Underground)
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