Earl: 5% Chance of "$10 billion disaster" in New England

I was just reading the Tropical Weather Blog at Weather Underground and was surprised to read this:

A deviation to the left, with a direct hit on eastern Long Island and Providence, Rhode Island, would probably be a $10 billion disaster, as the hurricane would hit a heavily populated area and drive a drive a 5 - 10 foot storm surge up Buzzards Bay and Narragansett Bay. The odds of this occurring are around 5%, according to the latest NHC wind probability forecast.

Whoa, whoa, whoa! The chance that Saturday morning we will begin cleaning up from a "$10 billion disaster" that would rival the Hurricane of 1938 are 1-in-20? This is news, no?